Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement from California's redrawn 48th Congressional District—now leaning Democratic (Harris +3)—has propelled trader consensus toward an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner, with Republicans at 13.5%. The shift follows Proposition 50 redistricting and Cook Political Report's recent adjustment favoring Democrats in this open seat. A crowded Democratic primary features frontrunners Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert, while Republicans, including Issa-endorsed Jim Desmond, face division ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. No recent polls have emerged, but the district's electoral math and lack of GOP incumbency advantage underpin the lopsided odds for the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
14%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$4,716 Vol.
85%
Republican Party
$3,307 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement from California's redrawn 48th Congressional District—now leaning Democratic (Harris +3)—has propelled trader consensus toward an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner, with Republicans at 13.5%. The shift follows Proposition 50 redistricting and Cook Political Report's recent adjustment favoring Democrats in this open seat. A crowded Democratic primary features frontrunners Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert, while Republicans, including Issa-endorsed Jim Desmond, face division ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. No recent polls have emerged, but the district's electoral math and lack of GOP incumbency advantage underpin the lopsided odds for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$8,023Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement from California's redrawn 48th Congressional District—now leaning Democratic (Harris +3)—has propelled trader consensus toward an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner, with Republicans at 13.5%. The shift follows Proposition 50 redistricting and Cook Political Report's recent adjustment favoring Democrats in this open seat. A crowded Democratic primary features frontrunners Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert, while Republicans, including Issa-endorsed Jim Desmond, face division ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. No recent polls have emerged, but the district's electoral math and lack of GOP incumbency advantage underpin the lopsided odds for the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$8,023Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa's March retirement from California's redrawn 48th Congressional District—now leaning Democratic (Harris +3)—has propelled trader consensus toward an 84.5% implied probability for a Democratic Party winner, with Republicans at 13.5%. The shift follows Proposition 50 redistricting and Cook Political Report's recent adjustment favoring Democrats in this open seat. A crowded Democratic primary features frontrunners Ammar Campa-Najjar, Brandon Riker, and Marni von Wilpert, while Republicans, including Issa-endorsed Jim Desmond, face division ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. No recent polls have emerged, but the district's electoral math and lack of GOP incumbency advantage underpin the lopsided odds for the November 3 general election.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan