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Politik·Rumah Perwakilan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politik·Rumah Perwakilan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 91%

Matt Ortega 4.3%

Carin Elam 4.0%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 3.9%

Polymarket
BARU

Aisha Wahab 91%

Matt Ortega 4.3%

Carin Elam 4.0%

Victor Aguilar Jr. 3.9%

Polymarket
BARU

Aisha Wahab

$434 Vol.

69%

Melissa Hernandez

$212 Vol.

4%

Wendy Huang

$165 Vol.

1%

Carin Elam

$210 Vol.

4%

Matt Ortega

$183 Vol.

4%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$308 Vol.

42%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$152 Vol.

4%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.The vacancy in California's 14th Congressional District, created by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations, triggered a June 16 special primary and August 18 special general election under California's top-two system. Trader consensus positions state Senator Aisha Wahab as the clear leader, driven by her California Democratic Party endorsement, prior congressional candidacy, and strong polling margins against a crowded field of Democratic challengers including Rakhi Israni Singh, Melissa Hernandez, and others. Lower-probability outcomes for candidates such as Matt Ortega, Carin Elam, Victor Aguilar Jr., and Republican Wendy Huang reflect limited name recognition and fundraising in a district with consistent Democratic majorities exceeding 65 percent in recent cycles. Key factors that could shift probabilities include primary turnout among key voting blocs and any late endorsements or campaign developments before June 16.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$1,663
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.The vacancy in California's 14th Congressional District, created by Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations, triggered a June 16 special primary and August 18 special general election under California's top-two system. Trader consensus positions state Senator Aisha Wahab as the clear leader, driven by her California Democratic Party endorsement, prior congressional candidacy, and strong polling margins against a crowded field of Democratic challengers including Rakhi Israni Singh, Melissa Hernandez, and others. Lower-probability outcomes for candidates such as Matt Ortega, Carin Elam, Victor Aguilar Jr., and Republican Wendy Huang reflect limited name recognition and fundraising in a district with consistent Democratic majorities exceeding 65 percent in recent cycles. Key factors that could shift probabilities include primary turnout among key voting blocs and any late endorsements or campaign developments before June 16.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$1,663
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 7 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Aisha Wahab" di 69%, diikuti oleh "Rakhi Israni Singh" di 42%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 69¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 69% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Apr 16, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," jelajahi 7 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" adalah "Aisha Wahab" di 69%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 69% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Rakhi Israni Singh" di 42%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.