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icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins
Politik·Brasil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins
Politik·Brasil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins

Lula 69%

Flavio Bolsonaro 32%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket

$22,724 Vol.

Lula 69%

Flavio Bolsonaro 32%

Edmilson Costa <1%

Escritor Augusto Cury <1%

Polymarket

$22,724 Vol.

icon for Lula

Lula

$5,795 Vol.

69%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$10,803 Vol.

32%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$542 Vol.

<1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$575 Vol.

<1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$342 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$1,256 Vol.

<1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$406 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$438 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$601 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$448 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$558 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$432 Vol.

<1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$527 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the leading trader consensus at 68% for first place in Tocantins in the October 4 first round, reflecting his incumbency as PT president and consistent national polling edges in the low-to-mid 30s percent range amid a fragmented field. A late-August Real Time Big Data survey in the state showed him tied with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others trailing single digits, while runoff tests gave Flávio a narrow edge. Flávio’s 31.5% probability captures his tightening national numbers and right-wing base in northern states, though recent Quaest and Nexus data indicate Lula retaining a slight first-round lead overall. Low odds for minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Pablo Marçal reflect vote splitting among opposition contenders.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,724
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the leading trader consensus at 68% for first place in Tocantins in the October 4 first round, reflecting his incumbency as PT president and consistent national polling edges in the low-to-mid 30s percent range amid a fragmented field. A late-August Real Time Big Data survey in the state showed him tied with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) at 36%, with Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and others trailing single digits, while runoff tests gave Flávio a narrow edge. Flávio’s 31.5% probability captures his tightening national numbers and right-wing base in northern states, though recent Quaest and Nexus data indicate Lula retaining a slight first-round lead overall. Low odds for minor candidates like Augusto Cury and Pablo Marçal reflect vote splitting among opposition contenders.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Tocantins, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Tocantins. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Tocantins. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$22,724
Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Terkait

icon for Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

86%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?

85%
icon for Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?

Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Santa Catarina?

97%

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 13 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Lula" di 69%, diikuti oleh "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 32%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 69¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 69% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" telah menghasilkan $22.7K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Aug 17, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins," jelajahi 13 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" adalah "Lula" di 69%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 69% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Flavio Bolsonaro" di 32%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Tocantins" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.