Lula maintains a commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party incumbent and his strong approval ratings there. Recent state-specific polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro's 19-23%, with other registered candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury registering low single digits or less. This regional base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 performance exceeding 63% in the state, underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status. A late national surge by right-leaning alternatives or unexpected turnout shifts could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLula 97.2%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Clariana Barao 1.1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$16,342 Vol.
$16,342 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 97.2%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Clariana Barao 1.1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$16,342 Vol.
$16,342 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$8,854 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$832 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$1,169 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$529 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$588 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$566 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$588 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$594 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$534 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$556 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$564 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$497 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$469 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party incumbent and his strong approval ratings there. Recent state-specific polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro's 19-23%, with other registered candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury registering low single digits or less. This regional base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 performance exceeding 63% in the state, underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status. A late national surge by right-leaning alternatives or unexpected turnout shifts could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$16,342Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party incumbent and his strong approval ratings there. Recent state-specific polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro's 19-23%, with other registered candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury registering low single digits or less. This regional base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 performance exceeding 63% in the state, underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status. A late national surge by right-leaning alternatives or unexpected turnout shifts could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,342Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Sergipe for first place in the October 4 first round, driven by the state's consistent Northeast voting patterns favoring the Workers' Party incumbent and his strong approval ratings there. Recent state-specific polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from August 2026, show him at 53-60% support against Flávio Bolsonaro's 19-23%, with other registered candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury registering low single digits or less. This regional base, reinforced by Lula's 2022 performance exceeding 63% in the state, underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status. A late national surge by right-leaning alternatives or unexpected turnout shifts could narrow margins, though structural advantages make such reversals unlikely before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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