Recent state-specific polling in São Paulo has positioned Flávio Bolsonaro ahead or statistically tied with Lula for first place in the October 4 first round, with Futura showing him at 37.4% to Lula’s 33.3% and Quaest at 31% to 30%. These results, released in the past week, reflect Bolsonaro family support in the state’s electorate and limited gains by other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Traders appear to weigh São Paulo’s large electorate and historical voting patterns when assessing first-place probabilities, with the tight national contest and upcoming debates within the resolution window representing the main variables that could still shift local momentum before voting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiFlavio Bolsonaro 89%
Lula 8.4%
Samara 1.0%
Zema 1.0%
$21,428 Vol.
$21,428 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
89%
Lula
8%
Samara
1%
Zema
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 89%
Lula 8.4%
Samara 1.0%
Zema 1.0%
$21,428 Vol.
$21,428 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$6,890 Vol.
89%
Lula
$7,529 Vol.
8%
Samara
$418 Vol.
1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$1,360 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$543 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,189 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$498 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-specific polling in São Paulo has positioned Flávio Bolsonaro ahead or statistically tied with Lula for first place in the October 4 first round, with Futura showing him at 37.4% to Lula’s 33.3% and Quaest at 31% to 30%. These results, released in the past week, reflect Bolsonaro family support in the state’s electorate and limited gains by other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Traders appear to weigh São Paulo’s large electorate and historical voting patterns when assessing first-place probabilities, with the tight national contest and upcoming debates within the resolution window representing the main variables that could still shift local momentum before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$21,428Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-specific polling in São Paulo has positioned Flávio Bolsonaro ahead or statistically tied with Lula for first place in the October 4 first round, with Futura showing him at 37.4% to Lula’s 33.3% and Quaest at 31% to 30%. These results, released in the past week, reflect Bolsonaro family support in the state’s electorate and limited gains by other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Traders appear to weigh São Paulo’s large electorate and historical voting patterns when assessing first-place probabilities, with the tight national contest and upcoming debates within the resolution window representing the main variables that could still shift local momentum before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$21,428Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent state-specific polling in São Paulo has positioned Flávio Bolsonaro ahead or statistically tied with Lula for first place in the October 4 first round, with Futura showing him at 37.4% to Lula’s 33.3% and Quaest at 31% to 30%. These results, released in the past week, reflect Bolsonaro family support in the state’s electorate and limited gains by other registered candidates such as Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos. Traders appear to weigh São Paulo’s large electorate and historical voting patterns when assessing first-place probabilities, with the tight national contest and upcoming debates within the resolution window representing the main variables that could still shift local momentum before voting.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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