Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Quaest and Futura/Apex showing him at 45-51% against Lula near 20% and all other candidates in single digits. The southern state's conservative electorate has consistently favored the Liberal Party candidate and the broader Bolsonaro-aligned platform on security and economic issues. This regional strength, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization and Jair Bolsonaro's prior backing, underpins the market's 97% implied probability. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail significantly in state-specific data. A sudden national surge by a competing right-wing name or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited risk of that outcome before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Santa Catarina
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.3%
Lula <1%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
BARU
BARU
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Lula
1%
Zema
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.3%
Lula <1%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
BARU
BARU
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,876 Vol.
97%
Lula
$325 Vol.
1%
Zema
$298 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$298 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$329 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$289 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$299 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$299 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$299 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$299 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$299 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$399 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$399 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Quaest and Futura/Apex showing him at 45-51% against Lula near 20% and all other candidates in single digits. The southern state's conservative electorate has consistently favored the Liberal Party candidate and the broader Bolsonaro-aligned platform on security and economic issues. This regional strength, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization and Jair Bolsonaro's prior backing, underpins the market's 97% implied probability. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail significantly in state-specific data. A sudden national surge by a competing right-wing name or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited risk of that outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$5,705Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Quaest and Futura/Apex showing him at 45-51% against Lula near 20% and all other candidates in single digits. The southern state's conservative electorate has consistently favored the Liberal Party candidate and the broader Bolsonaro-aligned platform on security and economic issues. This regional strength, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization and Jair Bolsonaro's prior backing, underpins the market's 97% implied probability. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail significantly in state-specific data. A sudden national surge by a competing right-wing name or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited risk of that outcome before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$5,705Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 4, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina polling for the October 2026 first round, with recent surveys from Quaest and Futura/Apex showing him at 45-51% against Lula near 20% and all other candidates in single digits. The southern state's conservative electorate has consistently favored the Liberal Party candidate and the broader Bolsonaro-aligned platform on security and economic issues. This regional strength, reinforced by the Liberal Party's local organization and Jair Bolsonaro's prior backing, underpins the market's 97% implied probability. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos trail significantly in state-specific data. A sudden national surge by a competing right-wing name or unexpected turnout shifts among undecided voters could narrow the margin, though current evidence points to limited risk of that outcome before election day.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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