Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for first place in Rondônia’s first-round presidential vote due to the state’s consistent conservative tilt and historically high support for Liberal Party candidates. Polling from mid-2026 showed him at 58 percent locally against Lula at 25 percent, with other contenders in single digits, reflecting low federal government approval and alignment with right-leaning platforms on security and economic issues. The July convention formalizing his candidacy and endorsements from figures such as Javier Milei reinforced his position as the primary opposition standard-bearer. Traders assign minimal probability to upsets from candidates including Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema, though shifts could arise from late campaign developments or turnout changes before the October 4 vote.