Recent analyst surveys by the Bank of Russia and market participants show expectations that the key rate will remain at its current 14% level through year-end, producing an average of 14.6% for 2026 overall. This positioning stems from persistent inflationary pressures, with annual inflation accelerating above 7% in October following utility tariff adjustments and elevated price growth in food and services. Updated federal budget parameters have increased spending, raising demand-side risks and prompting upward revisions to 2026 inflation forecasts to around 7.1%. The central bank’s cautious stance, evident in the September hold after prior easing, aligns with these factors and supports the leading “no change” outcome ahead of the December meeting. A modest 25 basis point cut retains secondary support if disinflation stabilizes faster than expected.