The Bank of Israel’s July 6 cut of 25 basis points to 3.5 percent, its second consecutive easing move, has left the policy rate at its lowest level since early 2023 and reduced pressure for immediate further adjustment ahead of the September 3 meeting. Inflation readings have stayed comfortably inside the 1–3 percent target band, with June CPI at 1.6 percent and one-year expectations near 1.5 percent, while the shekel has remained strong and Israel’s risk premium has returned to pre-2023 levels. These conditions, alongside a broadening economic recovery and GDP forecasts above 4 percent for 2026, underpin trader consensus favoring no change at roughly 77 percent. A modest probability of an additional cut reflects the possibility of softer incoming data, whereas any hike remains priced at negligible odds given the absence of upside inflation risks.