Recent UK CPI inflation easing to 2.6% in June 2026, below expectations, combined with the Bank of England's July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Three MPC members advocated a hike amid upside risks from Middle East energy price volatility, yet domestic disinflation in services and wages, plus loose labor market conditions, support a steady policy stance. Trader consensus via these odds reflects the central bank's guidance to look through temporary inflation spikes while monitoring second-round effects, with the September vote on quantitative tightening also in focus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiBank of England decision in September?
No change 90%
25 bps increase 10.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$136,297 Vol.
$136,297 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
90%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 90%
25 bps increase 10.9%
50+ bps decrease <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$136,297 Vol.
$136,297 Vol.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
90%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
<1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Jun 23, 2026, 8:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent UK CPI inflation easing to 2.6% in June 2026, below expectations, combined with the Bank of England's July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote, underpins the 89.5% market-implied probability of no change at the September 17 meeting. Three MPC members advocated a hike amid upside risks from Middle East energy price volatility, yet domestic disinflation in services and wages, plus loose labor market conditions, support a steady policy stance. Trader consensus via these odds reflects the central bank's guidance to look through temporary inflation spikes while monitoring second-round effects, with the September vote on quantitative tightening also in focus.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui


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