Argentina’s ongoing disinflation under President Javier Milei’s fiscal austerity and exchange-rate stability has anchored trader expectations for 2026 annual inflation near 30 percent. August 2026 data showed monthly CPI at a 14-month low of 1.7 percent, lifting the trailing twelve-month rate to 33.5 percent and year-to-date accumulation to 21.3 percent, consistent with the downward trajectory after a July uptick. Central Bank REM surveys and BBVA Research project a full-year 2026 outcome of 29–30 percent, supported by moderate utility-price adjustments and contained core pressures averaging near 1.8 percent monthly. Market-implied odds heavily favor the 30.0–34.9 percent bin as these dynamics point to a gradual convergence toward single-digit monthly rates by year-end, though upside risks from regulated prices and external shocks remain.
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