Omar Aziz (PSD) leads the Amazonas gubernatorial race with 87.5% implied probability after securing 40.6% in the October 4 first round and advancing to the October 25 runoff against Professora Maria do Carmo (PL) at 24.5%. Aziz won 53 of 62 municipalities, drawing strong interior support and benefiting from a broad coalition that includes PSD, MDB, Republicanos, and left-leaning parties. Former governor and sitting senator, he outperformed Roberto Cidade (União Brasil), who placed third at 21.9% despite holding the office after Wilson Lima’s resignation. Maria do Carmo’s narrower base, concentrated in Manaus, leaves her trailing significantly in runoff simulations and trader consensus. The wide gap reflects Aziz’s structural advantages in vote distribution and coalition strength ahead of the decisive second round.