South Africa leads Group D in the AFCON 2027 qualifiers with a perfect six points and +6 goal difference after two matchdays, following victories over Guinea and a 5-0 rout of Eritrea that has positioned Bafana Bafana as the clear frontrunner for the group’s single available finals spot. Guinea sits second on three points after defeating Kenya, while the co-host Kenyans and Eritrea trail further back. Traders have priced South Africa at 72.5% implied probability on the strength of this early dominance and historical edge in the group, with Guinea at 26% reflecting its remaining fixtures and competitive squad. Kenya’s automatic qualification as a host and Eritrea’s limited resources further shape the current consensus reflected in these prices.