Mailza Assis (PP) advanced to the October 25 runoff as the clear frontrunner after capturing 49.76% of valid first-round votes on October 4, 2026, compared with 32.27% for Senator Alan Rick (Republicanos). She carried 19 of 22 municipalities, including the capital Rio Branco, building on her incumbency advantage following her April 2026 ascension to the governorship after Gladson Cameli’s resignation. Earlier polls had shown a technical tie between the two, but her strong municipal-level results and broad coalition support have shifted trader consensus sharply in her favor. A competitive runoff could still hinge on turnout among undecided voters, opposition consolidation, or late campaign developments that narrow her margin.