Gregg Hull holds a commanding position in the New Mexico Republican primary for governor due to his twelve-year record as Rio Rancho mayor, which has delivered broad name recognition and organizational strength across the state. He secured more than 55 percent of delegate support at the March pre-primary convention, outpacing Doug Turner and positioning both on the June 2 ballot alongside Duke Rodriguez. Recent polling shows Hull maintaining a narrow lead at 33 percent to Turner’s 30 percent with 25 percent undecided, though Turner has closed the gap since earlier surveys. Traders’ consensus assigns Hull an 88 percent implied probability, reflecting his established incumbency-like advantages in a compressed campaign window where late shifts remain possible but face structural headwinds from voter familiarity and party infrastructure.