Trader consensus on the #3 AI lab by end of October reflects high uncertainty, with Meta at 35% and Google at 27.5% leading a field of closely matched outcomes around 50%. Recent model releases drive positioning: OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 strengthens its top-tier hold, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 maintains benchmark leadership in reasoning and coding. Meta benefits from strong open-weights momentum and style steerability features that enhance user control over output tone and consistency, giving it an edge in practical adoption. Google faces delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro but retains scale advantages in multimodal capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming flagship drops, style-control demonstrations, and benchmark shifts before the October cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMeta 34%
Google 28%
OpenAI 13.7%
Alibaba 8%
$36,887 Vol.
$36,887 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
34%
28%
OpenAI
14%
Alibaba
8%
Moonshot
5%
Z.ai
5%
Baidu
4%
Anthropic
3%
Mistral
3%
SpaceXAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 34%
Google 28%
OpenAI 13.7%
Alibaba 8%
$36,887 Vol.
$36,887 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$5,999 Vol.
34%
$17,175 Vol.
28%
OpenAI
$1,998 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$4,984 Vol.
8%
Moonshot
$466 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$329 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$312 Vol.
4%
Anthropic
$450 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$396 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$301 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$291 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$506 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$499 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$357 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$393 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$377 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$543 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$390 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$372 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$377 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on the #3 AI lab by end of October reflects high uncertainty, with Meta at 35% and Google at 27.5% leading a field of closely matched outcomes around 50%. Recent model releases drive positioning: OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 strengthens its top-tier hold, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 maintains benchmark leadership in reasoning and coding. Meta benefits from strong open-weights momentum and style steerability features that enhance user control over output tone and consistency, giving it an edge in practical adoption. Google faces delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro but retains scale advantages in multimodal capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming flagship drops, style-control demonstrations, and benchmark shifts before the October cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$36,887Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on the #3 AI lab by end of October reflects high uncertainty, with Meta at 35% and Google at 27.5% leading a field of closely matched outcomes around 50%. Recent model releases drive positioning: OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 strengthens its top-tier hold, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 maintains benchmark leadership in reasoning and coding. Meta benefits from strong open-weights momentum and style steerability features that enhance user control over output tone and consistency, giving it an edge in practical adoption. Google faces delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro but retains scale advantages in multimodal capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming flagship drops, style-control demonstrations, and benchmark shifts before the October cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$36,887Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the #3 AI lab by end of October reflects high uncertainty, with Meta at 35% and Google at 27.5% leading a field of closely matched outcomes around 50%. Recent model releases drive positioning: OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 strengthens its top-tier hold, while Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 maintains benchmark leadership in reasoning and coding. Meta benefits from strong open-weights momentum and style steerability features that enhance user control over output tone and consistency, giving it an edge in practical adoption. Google faces delays on Gemini 3.5 Pro but retains scale advantages in multimodal capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming flagship drops, style-control demonstrations, and benchmark shifts before the October cutoff.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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