Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, its fourth in five months, has elevated trader sentiment for the company as the likely #2 AI lab by end of October, with the model scoring competitively on intelligence indices and agentic/coding benchmarks behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 but ahead of several OpenAI variants. Google's Gemini delays, including shelving Gemini 3.5 Pro in favor of a later Gemini 4, have kept it close but slightly behind in market-implied odds despite strong Flash-tier updates. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 reinforces its frontrunner status, narrowing the #2 contest to Meta's rapid iteration and open-weight momentum versus Google's broader research depth and infrastructure. These late-summer capability demonstrations and benchmark shifts explain the tight 31.5% to 29% spread between Meta and Google.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMeta 32%
Google 30%
OpenAI 14%
Anthropic 11%
$21,946 Vol.
$21,946 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
32%
30%
OpenAI
14%
Anthropic
11%
Alibaba
7%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Baidu
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Meta 32%
Google 30%
OpenAI 14%
Anthropic 11%
$21,946 Vol.
$21,946 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$4,456 Vol.
32%
$6,322 Vol.
30%
OpenAI
$1,830 Vol.
14%
Anthropic
$857 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$517 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$498 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$553 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$493 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$501 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$483 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$463 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$512 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$553 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$530 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$535 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$458 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$421 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$512 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$470 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$464 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$518 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, its fourth in five months, has elevated trader sentiment for the company as the likely #2 AI lab by end of October, with the model scoring competitively on intelligence indices and agentic/coding benchmarks behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 but ahead of several OpenAI variants. Google's Gemini delays, including shelving Gemini 3.5 Pro in favor of a later Gemini 4, have kept it close but slightly behind in market-implied odds despite strong Flash-tier updates. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 reinforces its frontrunner status, narrowing the #2 contest to Meta's rapid iteration and open-weight momentum versus Google's broader research depth and infrastructure. These late-summer capability demonstrations and benchmark shifts explain the tight 31.5% to 29% spread between Meta and Google.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$21,946Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, its fourth in five months, has elevated trader sentiment for the company as the likely #2 AI lab by end of October, with the model scoring competitively on intelligence indices and agentic/coding benchmarks behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 but ahead of several OpenAI variants. Google's Gemini delays, including shelving Gemini 3.5 Pro in favor of a later Gemini 4, have kept it close but slightly behind in market-implied odds despite strong Flash-tier updates. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 reinforces its frontrunner status, narrowing the #2 contest to Meta's rapid iteration and open-weight momentum versus Google's broader research depth and infrastructure. These late-summer capability demonstrations and benchmark shifts explain the tight 31.5% to 29% spread between Meta and Google.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$21,946Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release, its fourth in five months, has elevated trader sentiment for the company as the likely #2 AI lab by end of October, with the model scoring competitively on intelligence indices and agentic/coding benchmarks behind Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 but ahead of several OpenAI variants. Google's Gemini delays, including shelving Gemini 3.5 Pro in favor of a later Gemini 4, have kept it close but slightly behind in market-implied odds despite strong Flash-tier updates. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra rollout on September 3 reinforces its frontrunner status, narrowing the #2 contest to Meta's rapid iteration and open-weight momentum versus Google's broader research depth and infrastructure. These late-summer capability demonstrations and benchmark shifts explain the tight 31.5% to 29% spread between Meta and Google.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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