NASA's continuous near-Earth object surveys, including systems like Sentry and ground-based telescopes, have identified no cataloged asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy during 2026. This established detection record and the rarity of megaton-class airbursts drive the 98.7% market-implied odds on "No." Minor events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide remain far below threshold. While an undetected decameter-scale object or unexpected orbital shift could theoretically alter outcomes before December 31 resolution, current observation windows and sensitivity thresholds make such scenarios highly improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% peluang
$116,322 Vol.
$116,322 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
1% peluang
$116,322 Vol.
$116,322 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous near-Earth object surveys, including systems like Sentry and ground-based telescopes, have identified no cataloged asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy during 2026. This established detection record and the rarity of megaton-class airbursts drive the 98.7% market-implied odds on "No." Minor events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide remain far below threshold. While an undetected decameter-scale object or unexpected orbital shift could theoretically alter outcomes before December 31 resolution, current observation windows and sensitivity thresholds make such scenarios highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$116,322Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's continuous near-Earth object surveys, including systems like Sentry and ground-based telescopes, have identified no cataloged asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy during 2026. This established detection record and the rarity of megaton-class airbursts drive the 98.7% market-implied odds on "No." Minor events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide remain far below threshold. While an undetected decameter-scale object or unexpected orbital shift could theoretically alter outcomes before December 31 resolution, current observation windows and sensitivity thresholds make such scenarios highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$116,322Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's continuous near-Earth object surveys, including systems like Sentry and ground-based telescopes, have identified no cataloged asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy during 2026. This established detection record and the rarity of megaton-class airbursts drive the 98.7% market-implied odds on "No." Minor events such as the March 2026 Cleveland bolide remain far below threshold. While an undetected decameter-scale object or unexpected orbital shift could theoretically alter outcomes before December 31 resolution, current observation windows and sensitivity thresholds make such scenarios highly improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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