Ongoing military exchanges between Iranian forces and U.S. and allied assets have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at historic lows, with daily transits often in single digits amid attacks on vessels, IRGC enforcement actions against unauthorized routes, and U.S. strikes on Iranian maritime and coastal targets. Recent incidents, including strikes on tankers near Oman and reported mine-laying concerns, have reinforced operator caution, sanctions exposure, and dark transits, sustaining the sharp contraction from pre-conflict volumes of over 120 vessels per day. Diplomatic efforts for a sustained ceasefire or joint corridors remain stalled, while Iranian statements emphasize control over routing and fees. Any further escalation or tightened enforcement could reduce transits to zero on isolated days, whereas verifiable de-escalation or cleared routes might gradually restore flows before key deadlines.