U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany dominates trader consensus at 89% implied probability to win Wisconsin's Republican gubernatorial primary on August 11, propelled by President Trump's January 28 endorsement that solidified his front-runner status and prompted rival Josh Schoemann's immediate withdrawal. Recent Marquette and Center Square polls through late March show Tiffany leading with around 40% support among likely primary voters, far ahead of challengers, bolstered by top fundraising and a seven-figure ad campaign launched April 15 emphasizing state pride and policy priorities. Low odds for former Gov. Tommy Thompson (3%), ex-Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (1.1%), and others like Sean Duffy reflect their inaction or past defeats without recent momentum, though a high-profile entrant or debate gaffes could narrow the gap in this open-seat race.