The Islamic Republic's security forces have maintained control following the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests, which peaked earlier in the year and were quelled by spring amid mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet shutdowns. Elite cohesion, despite some reported infighting, and the absence of widespread defections or coordinated opposition have prevented any rapid unraveling of central authority. With roughly six weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 98% for "No" reflects the regime's institutional staying power and lack of immediate catalysts such as successful military action or leadership decapitation. External diplomatic or economic pressures could intensify, yet structural barriers including loyal paramilitary units and fragmented exile networks make a full regime collapse before the deadline highly improbable absent unforeseen escalation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 सितंबर तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 सितंबर तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
2% संभावना
$1,582,798 वॉल्यूम
$1,582,798 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
हाँ
2% संभावना
$1,582,798 वॉल्यूम
$1,582,798 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic's security forces have maintained control following the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests, which peaked earlier in the year and were quelled by spring amid mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet shutdowns. Elite cohesion, despite some reported infighting, and the absence of widespread defections or coordinated opposition have prevented any rapid unraveling of central authority. With roughly six weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 98% for "No" reflects the regime's institutional staying power and lack of immediate catalysts such as successful military action or leadership decapitation. External diplomatic or economic pressures could intensify, yet structural barriers including loyal paramilitary units and fragmented exile networks make a full regime collapse before the deadline highly improbable absent unforeseen escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,582,798समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic's security forces have maintained control following the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests, which peaked earlier in the year and were quelled by spring amid mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet shutdowns. Elite cohesion, despite some reported infighting, and the absence of widespread defections or coordinated opposition have prevented any rapid unraveling of central authority. With roughly six weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 98% for "No" reflects the regime's institutional staying power and lack of immediate catalysts such as successful military action or leadership decapitation. External diplomatic or economic pressures could intensify, yet structural barriers including loyal paramilitary units and fragmented exile networks make a full regime collapse before the deadline highly improbable absent unforeseen escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,582,798समाप्ति तिथि
30 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's security forces have maintained control following the violent suppression of 2025–2026 protests, which peaked earlier in the year and were quelled by spring amid mass arrests, executions, and nationwide internet shutdowns. Elite cohesion, despite some reported infighting, and the absence of widespread defections or coordinated opposition have prevented any rapid unraveling of central authority. With roughly six weeks remaining until September 30, trader consensus at 98% for "No" reflects the regime's institutional staying power and lack of immediate catalysts such as successful military action or leadership decapitation. External diplomatic or economic pressures could intensify, yet structural barriers including loyal paramilitary units and fragmented exile networks make a full regime collapse before the deadline highly improbable absent unforeseen escalation.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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