Tesla's persistent failure to secure the multi-step California DMV permits for unsupervised autonomous testing or CPUC authorization for paid robotaxi service underpins the 82% market-implied probability of no launch by year-end. The company holds only entry-level approvals requiring safety drivers and has logged zero autonomous test miles in the state in recent periods, falling short of the roughly 50,000-mile data threshold needed before applying for driverless operations. While Cybercab production is slated to begin in 2026 and Full Self-Driving improvements continue elsewhere, California's rigorous safety data and approval processes create substantial barriers unlikely to clear in the remaining months, though expedited regulatory action could theoretically alter the timeline.