The ongoing ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel remain in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder in May 2029, making a final merits ruling on state responsibility for genocide unlikely before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials solely for war crimes and crimes against humanity, without pursuing or confirming genocide charges, which require proof of specific intent to destroy a group in whole or in part. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions on interpretive questions, but these do not accelerate adjudication or alter the high evidentiary threshold. Trader consensus at 90% for no finding by the deadline reflects these structural delays and the rarity of genocide determinations at international courts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया10% संभावना
$99,162 वॉल्यूम
$99,162 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2027
10% संभावना
$99,162 वॉल्यूम
$99,162 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ongoing ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel remain in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder in May 2029, making a final merits ruling on state responsibility for genocide unlikely before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials solely for war crimes and crimes against humanity, without pursuing or confirming genocide charges, which require proof of specific intent to destroy a group in whole or in part. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions on interpretive questions, but these do not accelerate adjudication or alter the high evidentiary threshold. Trader consensus at 90% for no finding by the deadline reflects these structural delays and the rarity of genocide determinations at international courts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$99,162समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The ongoing ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel remain in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder in May 2029, making a final merits ruling on state responsibility for genocide unlikely before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials solely for war crimes and crimes against humanity, without pursuing or confirming genocide charges, which require proof of specific intent to destroy a group in whole or in part. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions on interpretive questions, but these do not accelerate adjudication or alter the high evidentiary threshold. Trader consensus at 90% for no finding by the deadline reflects these structural delays and the rarity of genocide determinations at international courts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$99,162समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 3:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing ICJ proceedings in South Africa v. Israel remain in the written pleadings phase, with South Africa’s reply due in November 2027 and Israel’s rejoinder in May 2029, making a final merits ruling on state responsibility for genocide unlikely before the market’s December 2027 cutoff. The ICC has issued arrest warrants against Israeli officials solely for war crimes and crimes against humanity, without pursuing or confirming genocide charges, which require proof of specific intent to destroy a group in whole or in part. Multiple states have filed Article 63 interventions on interpretive questions, but these do not accelerate adjudication or alter the high evidentiary threshold. Trader consensus at 90% for no finding by the deadline reflects these structural delays and the rarity of genocide determinations at international courts.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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