Democratic candidates in the 2026 midterms face resolution based on whether their certified statewide vote shares fall below Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential performance in the same states. With elections set for November 3, recent polling shows varied dynamics across key races, including tight contests in Maine where Republican Susan Collins holds a narrow edge over Democrat Troy Jackson, and Michigan where Abdul El-Sayed leads but trails broader Democratic benchmarks. Overall market trends favor Democratic gains in the House and Senate amid generic ballot advantages, though candidate-specific factors such as local scandals, opponent resilience, and turnout patterns could shift individual outcomes. Resolution relies on official state certifications, with ranked-choice or runoff rules using first-round shares where applicable.