The 2026 midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, feature several Democratic candidates in statewide races whose certified vote shares will be compared directly to Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential results in the same states. Trader focus centers on polling trends in contested Senate and gubernatorial contests in states such as Maine, Oregon, New York, Georgia, Michigan, Florida, and New Hampshire, where recent surveys show varying gaps relative to 2024 benchmarks. Broader market pricing reflects Democratic advantages in House and Senate control overall, but individual candidate performance depends on turnout, opponent strength, and state-specific dynamics. Resolution uses official state certifications, with markets sensitive to any late shifts in polling or campaign developments before Election Day.