Market participants have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, assigning it a 93.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August. This strong consensus reflects the company's track record of releasing large language models that lead on key benchmarks for reasoning, safety alignment, and real-world capability, outpacing recent offerings from OpenAI and Google. Traders appear to view Anthropic's current frontier systems as the clearest frontrunner with limited time remaining. While the positioning draws on skin-in-the-game sentiment, credible last-minute releases, new third-party evaluations, or capability jumps from competitors could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाएन्थ्रोपिक 94%
ओपनएआई 3.3%
Google 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,627,165 वॉल्यूम
$1,627,165 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
एन्थ्रोपिक
94%
ओपनएआई
3%
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
स्पेसएक्सएआई
<1%
मेटा
<1%
अलीबाबा
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
बाइडू
<1%
शिओमी
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
बाइटडांस
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
थिंकी
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
मिस्त्राल
<1%
Meituan
<1%
टेनसेंट
<1%
StepFun
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
<1%
एन्थ्रोपिक 94%
ओपनएआई 3.3%
Google 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,627,165 वॉल्यूम
$1,627,165 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
एन्थ्रोपिक
$335,916 वॉल्यूम
94%
ओपनएआई
$145,506 वॉल्यूम
3%
$126,291 वॉल्यूम
2%
DeepSeek
$184,422 वॉल्यूम
<1%
स्पेसएक्सएआई
$134,728 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मेटा
$136,307 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अलीबाबा
$129,977 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$124,720 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मूनशॉट
$107,002 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइडू
$15,032 वॉल्यूम
<1%
शिओमी
$11,009 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$9,778 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइटडांस
$88,729 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 वॉल्यूम
<1%
थिंकी
$14,084 वॉल्यूम
<1%
MiniMax
$23,168 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्त्राल
$4,351 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 वॉल्यूम
<1%
टेनसेंट
$4,363 वॉल्यूम
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 वॉल्यूम
<1%
माइक्रोसॉफ्ट
$11,524 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Market participants have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, assigning it a 93.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August. This strong consensus reflects the company's track record of releasing large language models that lead on key benchmarks for reasoning, safety alignment, and real-world capability, outpacing recent offerings from OpenAI and Google. Traders appear to view Anthropic's current frontier systems as the clearest frontrunner with limited time remaining. While the positioning draws on skin-in-the-game sentiment, credible last-minute releases, new third-party evaluations, or capability jumps from competitors could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,627,165समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Market participants have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, assigning it a 93.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August. This strong consensus reflects the company's track record of releasing large language models that lead on key benchmarks for reasoning, safety alignment, and real-world capability, outpacing recent offerings from OpenAI and Google. Traders appear to view Anthropic's current frontier systems as the clearest frontrunner with limited time remaining. While the positioning draws on skin-in-the-game sentiment, credible last-minute releases, new third-party evaluations, or capability jumps from competitors could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$1,627,165समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market participants have placed overwhelming confidence in Anthropic, assigning it a 93.5% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August. This strong consensus reflects the company's track record of releasing large language models that lead on key benchmarks for reasoning, safety alignment, and real-world capability, outpacing recent offerings from OpenAI and Google. Traders appear to view Anthropic's current frontier systems as the clearest frontrunner with limited time remaining. While the positioning draws on skin-in-the-game sentiment, credible last-minute releases, new third-party evaluations, or capability jumps from competitors could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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