Anthropic’s release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which immediately claimed the top spot on major leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign index at 82.58 and composite scores near 97, drives the 72.5% market-implied probability that the company holds the leading AI model by month-end. Multiple Claude variants occupy the highest ranks across coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 81.9. With only weeks remaining until resolution, traders see limited scope for rivals to close the gap through new releases or updates. OpenAI’s 19% odds reflect its strong but secondary positioning, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their trailing benchmark results and absence of comparable recent frontier advances.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAnthropic 73%
OpenAI 23.0%
मेटा 5.8%
गूगल <1%
$68,723 वॉल्यूम
$68,723 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
Anthropic
73%
OpenAI
20%
मेटा
6%
गूगल
1%
मूनशॉट
<1%
अलीबाबा
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
बाईडू
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
बाइटडांस
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
थिंकी
<1%
Meituan
<1%
मिस्ट्रील
<1%
अमेज़न
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
टेनसेंट
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 73%
OpenAI 23.0%
मेटा 5.8%
गूगल <1%
$68,723 वॉल्यूम
$68,723 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
Anthropic
$32,380 वॉल्यूम
73%
OpenAI
$4,967 वॉल्यूम
20%
मेटा
$3,819 वॉल्यूम
6%
गूगल
$4,097 वॉल्यूम
1%
मूनशॉट
$2,506 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अलीबाबा
$2,676 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Z.ai
$2,184 वॉल्यूम
<1%
SpaceXAI
$1,842 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाईडू
$769 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 वॉल्यूम
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,431 वॉल्यूम
<1%
बाइटडांस
$436 वॉल्यूम
<1%
MiniMax
$436 वॉल्यूम
<1%
थिंकी
$1,313 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Meituan
$930 वॉल्यूम
<1%
मिस्ट्रील
$1,554 वॉल्यूम
<1%
अमेज़न
$436 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Nvidia
$920 वॉल्यूम
<1%
टेनसेंट
$2,658 वॉल्यूम
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Microsoft
$762 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which immediately claimed the top spot on major leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign index at 82.58 and composite scores near 97, drives the 72.5% market-implied probability that the company holds the leading AI model by month-end. Multiple Claude variants occupy the highest ranks across coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 81.9. With only weeks remaining until resolution, traders see limited scope for rivals to close the gap through new releases or updates. OpenAI’s 19% odds reflect its strong but secondary positioning, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their trailing benchmark results and absence of comparable recent frontier advances.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$68,723समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which immediately claimed the top spot on major leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign index at 82.58 and composite scores near 97, drives the 72.5% market-implied probability that the company holds the leading AI model by month-end. Multiple Claude variants occupy the highest ranks across coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 81.9. With only weeks remaining until resolution, traders see limited scope for rivals to close the gap through new releases or updates. OpenAI’s 19% odds reflect its strong but secondary positioning, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their trailing benchmark results and absence of comparable recent frontier advances.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
वॉल्यूम
$68,723समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s release of Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1, 2026, which immediately claimed the top spot on major leaderboards including BenchLM’s BenchAlign index at 82.58 and composite scores near 97, drives the 72.5% market-implied probability that the company holds the leading AI model by month-end. Multiple Claude variants occupy the highest ranks across coding, reasoning, and agentic benchmarks, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 81.9. With only weeks remaining until resolution, traders see limited scope for rivals to close the gap through new releases or updates. OpenAI’s 19% odds reflect its strong but secondary positioning, while lower probabilities for Meta, Google, and others align with their trailing benchmark results and absence of comparable recent frontier advances.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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