Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q3 2026 shows closely matched probabilities across the 2.0–3.0% range, with the ≥3.0% bucket leading at 34% implied probability due to resilient consumer spending and labor market conditions. Recent nonfarm payrolls and retail sales data have supported above-trend expansion, yet moderating core inflation readings and Federal Reserve signals on the policy rate path have capped upside expectations. The tight spread between the 2.0–2.5% (26%) and 2.5–3.0% (24.5%) outcomes highlights uncertainty over final-quarter momentum, with upcoming August employment figures, September CPI, and PMI releases serving as key catalysts that could shift the market-implied distribution before the BEA advance estimate.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाQ3 2026 में अमेरिकी सकल घरेलू उत्पाद की वृद्धि?
Q3 2026 में अमेरिकी सकल घरेलू उत्पाद की वृद्धि?
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 26%
1.5–2.0% 12%
$24,081 वॉल्यूम
$24,081 वॉल्यूम
29 अक्टू, 2026
<0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
6%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
26%
≥3.0%
33%
≥3.0% 33%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 26%
1.5–2.0% 12%
$24,081 वॉल्यूम
$24,081 वॉल्यूम
29 अक्टू, 2026
<0.5%
$821 वॉल्यूम
5%
0.5–1.0%
$485 वॉल्यूम
5%
1.0–1.5%
$565 वॉल्यूम
6%
1.5–2.0%
$663 वॉल्यूम
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,810 वॉल्यूम
26%
2.5–3.0%
$3,316 वॉल्यूम
26%
≥3.0%
$16,420 वॉल्यूम
33%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q3 2026 shows closely matched probabilities across the 2.0–3.0% range, with the ≥3.0% bucket leading at 34% implied probability due to resilient consumer spending and labor market conditions. Recent nonfarm payrolls and retail sales data have supported above-trend expansion, yet moderating core inflation readings and Federal Reserve signals on the policy rate path have capped upside expectations. The tight spread between the 2.0–2.5% (26%) and 2.5–3.0% (24.5%) outcomes highlights uncertainty over final-quarter momentum, with upcoming August employment figures, September CPI, and PMI releases serving as key catalysts that could shift the market-implied distribution before the BEA advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$24,081समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q3 2026 shows closely matched probabilities across the 2.0–3.0% range, with the ≥3.0% bucket leading at 34% implied probability due to resilient consumer spending and labor market conditions. Recent nonfarm payrolls and retail sales data have supported above-trend expansion, yet moderating core inflation readings and Federal Reserve signals on the policy rate path have capped upside expectations. The tight spread between the 2.0–2.5% (26%) and 2.5–3.0% (24.5%) outcomes highlights uncertainty over final-quarter momentum, with upcoming August employment figures, September CPI, and PMI releases serving as key catalysts that could shift the market-implied distribution before the BEA advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
वॉल्यूम
$24,081समाप्ति तिथि
29 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q3 2026 shows closely matched probabilities across the 2.0–3.0% range, with the ≥3.0% bucket leading at 34% implied probability due to resilient consumer spending and labor market conditions. Recent nonfarm payrolls and retail sales data have supported above-trend expansion, yet moderating core inflation readings and Federal Reserve signals on the policy rate path have capped upside expectations. The tight spread between the 2.0–2.5% (26%) and 2.5–3.0% (24.5%) outcomes highlights uncertainty over final-quarter momentum, with upcoming August employment figures, September CPI, and PMI releases serving as key catalysts that could shift the market-implied distribution before the BEA advance estimate.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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