Tom Sell holds a commanding 99% implied probability as the Republican nominee for Texas' 19th Congressional District. In the March 3 primary for the open seat, Sell captured 40% of the vote to lead the field, advancing to the May 26 runoff against Abraham Enriquez, who finished second at roughly 19%. Subsequent polling has shown Sell maintaining a wide margin, reflecting his background in agriculture policy and prior congressional staff experience. Other listed candidates trailed significantly in the initial primary and have not mounted a visible challenge. A sudden shift in turnout or late-breaking developments before the runoff could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus views such scenarios as low-probability.