Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Turkey announcing a referendum on a new constitution by year-end 2026, reflecting stalled momentum after the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) February roadmap for reform, which stopped short of sharing a full draft with opposition parties. Despite President Erdoğan's early-year push framing 2026 as a reform period and minor parliamentary seat gains for the AKP-MHP coalition, the bloc remains below the 360-vote threshold needed in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. No bills have advanced amid opposition resistance and shifting focus to economic priorities and power transition debates, with scant developments since mid-March underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints. Late breakthroughs like cross-party talks could shift odds, but traders see significant barriers persisting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
नया
नया
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Turkey announcing a referendum on a new constitution by year-end 2026, reflecting stalled momentum after the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) February roadmap for reform, which stopped short of sharing a full draft with opposition parties. Despite President Erdoğan's early-year push framing 2026 as a reform period and minor parliamentary seat gains for the AKP-MHP coalition, the bloc remains below the 360-vote threshold needed in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. No bills have advanced amid opposition resistance and shifting focus to economic priorities and power transition debates, with scant developments since mid-March underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints. Late breakthroughs like cross-party talks could shift odds, but traders see significant barriers persisting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
बाज़ार खुला: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$223समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Turkey announcing a referendum on a new constitution by year-end 2026, reflecting stalled momentum after the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) February roadmap for reform, which stopped short of sharing a full draft with opposition parties. Despite President Erdoğan's early-year push framing 2026 as a reform period and minor parliamentary seat gains for the AKP-MHP coalition, the bloc remains below the 360-vote threshold needed in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. No bills have advanced amid opposition resistance and shifting focus to economic priorities and power transition debates, with scant developments since mid-March underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints. Late breakthroughs like cross-party talks could shift odds, but traders see significant barriers persisting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
वॉल्यूम
$223समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 88% chance against Turkey announcing a referendum on a new constitution by year-end 2026, reflecting stalled momentum after the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) February roadmap for reform, which stopped short of sharing a full draft with opposition parties. Despite President Erdoğan's early-year push framing 2026 as a reform period and minor parliamentary seat gains for the AKP-MHP coalition, the bloc remains below the 360-vote threshold needed in the 600-seat Grand National Assembly to trigger a referendum. No bills have advanced amid opposition resistance and shifting focus to economic priorities and power transition debates, with scant developments since mid-March underscoring procedural hurdles and time constraints. Late breakthroughs like cross-party talks could shift odds, but traders see significant barriers persisting.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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