The 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” on the U.S. Space Academy commencing instruction by June 30, 2027, reflects the narrow window for completing congressional authorization, funding, site selection, facility construction, faculty hiring, and student enrollment after the August 2026 executive order. NASA’s Presidential Commission held its first meeting in September and issued an RFI for host states due October 26, with official plans targeting groundbreaking no later than 2027 and a temporary campus only in 2028. These milestones align with historical service-academy timelines and underscore the legislative and logistical barriers that traders view as unlikely to clear in time for actual academic training within the resolution period.