Trump’s decision not to invoke the War Powers Resolution for operations against the Houthis by the September 30 deadline reflects sustained restraint amid the broader Iran conflict that began in February 2026. The administration has limited direct U.S. military engagement in Yemen to intelligence sharing, targeting support, and limited refueling for Saudi-led forces, while rebuffing repeated Saudi requests for American airstrikes and maintaining the 2025 ceasefire framework. Congressional war-powers resolutions have focused primarily on the Iran campaign rather than Yemen, and no public notification or executive action triggered the 48-hour reporting requirement or 60-day clock for new hostilities in Yemen before the cutoff. Traders assign near-certain odds to “No” because the deadline has passed without verifiable invocation. Late developments such as a classified notification, reinterpretation of existing support as “hostilities,” or an unforeseen escalation tied to Red Sea shipping threats could still shift resolution if confirmed before market settlement.