Trump’s approval rating has remained near second-term lows near 35-39 percent in recent national polling averages, weighed down by persistent voter pessimism over the economy, cost of living, and tariffs. As of early September 2026, Silver Bulletin and other aggregators showed net approval stuck around -19 to -20, with fresh surveys from FT and others recording fresh lows amid midterm campaigning. Traders assign 99.5 percent probability to a weekly decline because no major positive catalyst has emerged to reverse the trend, and historical patterns show limited short-term volatility absent breaking news. A sudden favorable economic release, diplomatic breakthrough, or high-profile policy win could still produce an upward shift before the week closes.