Tristan Buckmaster’s September 2026 public allegations against OpenAI over credit for AI-assisted progress on Navier-Stokes fluid equations form the core driver of trader sentiment. The NYU mathematician detailed conversations with researcher Sébastien Bubeck in which OpenAI reportedly proposed excluding Anthropic co-author Levent Alpöge from authorship, questioned the timing of its internal model’s proof relative to Buckmaster’s private Codex sessions, and issued career-related warnings when he threatened to go public. OpenAI has categorically denied using his inputs or training data and maintains its result was independent. No lawsuit has been filed in the ensuing month, keeping implied probabilities low as the matter remains an academic and reputational dispute rather than active litigation. Key swing factors include any formal court filing, settlement talks, or independent verification of the competing proofs ahead of the market’s December 31, 2026 horizon.