**Recent ethics complaints and bar opposition have not yet produced any formal investigation or sanctions against Todd Blanche.** Multiple groups, including over 100 former judges and organizations such as Lawyers Defending American Democracy, filed detailed complaints in June 2026 with New York’s First Department Attorney Grievance Committee alleging violations of professional conduct rules tied to his DOJ actions, including IRS settlement handling, document releases, and prosecutions. The NYC Bar Association opposed his Attorney General nomination in July on related grounds, and a federal judge issued a disciplinary referral around the same time. New York attorney discipline follows a structured, multi-step grievance process administered by Appellate Division committees that typically involves review, possible investigation, hearings, and appeals before any suspension or disbarment. No public record shows the committee opening a formal probe or advancing to charges as of mid-August 2026. High-profile complaints against sitting or former officials frequently stall or extend over many months or years without immediate license restrictions. Traders price the 87.5% probability on “No” because the timeline, procedural safeguards, and lack of swift institutional action make disbarment or suspension by year-end improbable despite the filings. Scheduled Senate confirmation activity and ongoing DOJ leadership have not altered this dynamic.