**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels, with only 3–4 vessel transits per day versus a normal ~74–125, according to recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data.** The disruption, now in its seventh month since late February 2026, features persistent risks including mine threats, drone and missile strikes on vessels, IRGC warnings against unauthorized routes, and suspended IMO evacuation plans. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Gulf states were postponed this week amid demands for US concessions, while war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated and Brent crude trades near $101–105 per barrel. Trader consensus assigning an 88.5% implied probability to “No” reflects these entrenched security and geopolitical barriers, with normalization by November 30 requiring sustained de-escalation, mine clearance, and verified traffic recovery that current conditions make improbable. Upcoming catalysts include any renewed ceasefire signals or major military shifts that could alter the risk environment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया12% संभावना
$352,618 वॉल्यूम
$352,618 वॉल्यूम
30 नव, 2026
12% संभावना
$352,618 वॉल्यूम
$352,618 वॉल्यूम
30 नव, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels, with only 3–4 vessel transits per day versus a normal ~74–125, according to recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data.** The disruption, now in its seventh month since late February 2026, features persistent risks including mine threats, drone and missile strikes on vessels, IRGC warnings against unauthorized routes, and suspended IMO evacuation plans. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Gulf states were postponed this week amid demands for US concessions, while war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated and Brent crude trades near $101–105 per barrel. Trader consensus assigning an 88.5% implied probability to “No” reflects these entrenched security and geopolitical barriers, with normalization by November 30 requiring sustained de-escalation, mine clearance, and verified traffic recovery that current conditions make improbable. Upcoming catalysts include any renewed ceasefire signals or major military shifts that could alter the risk environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$352,618समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels, with only 3–4 vessel transits per day versus a normal ~74–125, according to recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data.** The disruption, now in its seventh month since late February 2026, features persistent risks including mine threats, drone and missile strikes on vessels, IRGC warnings against unauthorized routes, and suspended IMO evacuation plans. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Gulf states were postponed this week amid demands for US concessions, while war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated and Brent crude trades near $101–105 per barrel. Trader consensus assigning an 88.5% implied probability to “No” reflects these entrenched security and geopolitical barriers, with normalization by November 30 requiring sustained de-escalation, mine clearance, and verified traffic recovery that current conditions make improbable. Upcoming catalysts include any renewed ceasefire signals or major military shifts that could alter the risk environment.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
वॉल्यूम
$352,618समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 10, 2026, 6:39 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities and Iranian efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic at roughly 4% of pre-crisis levels, with only 3–4 vessel transits per day versus a normal ~74–125, according to recent Kpler and IMF PortWatch data.** The disruption, now in its seventh month since late February 2026, features persistent risks including mine threats, drone and missile strikes on vessels, IRGC warnings against unauthorized routes, and suspended IMO evacuation plans. Diplomatic talks between Iran and Gulf states were postponed this week amid demands for US concessions, while war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated and Brent crude trades near $101–105 per barrel. Trader consensus assigning an 88.5% implied probability to “No” reflects these entrenched security and geopolitical barriers, with normalization by November 30 requiring sustained de-escalation, mine clearance, and verified traffic recovery that current conditions make improbable. Upcoming catalysts include any renewed ceasefire signals or major military shifts that could alter the risk environment.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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