**Consistent polling aggregates place the center-right Partido Popular (PP) ahead of the ruling PSOE by roughly 4–7 points, with Vox polling near 19% and on track to roughly double its 2023 seat total.** This produces combined PP+Vox seat projections of approximately 196–205 out of 350—well above the 176-seat absolute majority threshold—in nearly all recent simulations from multiple firms. The snap election scheduled for 29 November 2026, called by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez after housing decrees were rejected in Congress, has not altered the underlying trend. The PSOE-led bloc that sustained the prior government continues to poll well below a majority, while the right-wing combination benefits from stable voter intentions and limited late-campaign volatility. Seat-distribution models incorporating historical polling error still assign PP+Vox a majority probability above 93–99%, aligning with the market’s current implied probability for a positive outcome. No major scheduled events or structural changes within the remaining campaign window appear positioned to reverse this positioning.