Recent upward revisions to South Korea’s 2026 full-year GDP forecasts, clustered between 3.2% and 3.7% from institutions including the OECD, AMRO, ADB, and the Bank of Korea, underpin the 40.5% market-implied probability on 3.0–3.4% Q3 YoY growth. Strong semiconductor and AI-related exports, which drove record export levels and supported Q2 growth near 3.7%, remain the dominant catalyst, with corporate earnings and fiscal support aiding a lagged consumption recovery. Elevated energy prices and Middle East geopolitical risks introduce downside pressure on margins and investment, tempering expectations for acceleration. Traders are pricing the outcome around these consensus projections ahead of the Bank of Korea’s Q3 release, with limited probability assigned to outcomes above 3.5% or below 2.5% given the momentum in external demand.