Higher gasoline prices, which rose sharply in September amid elevated energy costs, represent the dominant driver positioning the 0.6% month-over-month CPI outcome as the market favorite at 64% implied probability. Pre-release consensus forecasts centered on a 0.6% headline gain—up from August’s 0.4%—reflecting energy’s contribution of roughly 0.3 percentage points, while core CPI was expected near 0.2%. Recent shelter-cost moderation and softer core services ex-shelter readings have tempered upside risks, supporting the secondary 0.5% probability at 28%. Traders are monitoring today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release for rounding effects and component details that could shift Fed rate expectations ahead of the October FOMC meeting, with Treasury yields and the dollar sensitive to any deviation from the 0.6% consensus.