**The September 6, 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election produced a fragmented Landtag, with the AfD taking 39 of 83 seats but missing an absolute majority by three.** Other parties, including the weakened CDU (15 seats), maintained firewall positions against AfD cooperation, while exploratory talks involving the BSW and others have focused on alternative majorities or an independent Minister-President rather than early dissolution. The new parliament convened October 6, the outgoing Schulze cabinet continues in caretaker role, and the Minister-President vote is set for December under constitutional procedures. No party has advanced a dissolution motion or cited conditions, such as repeated failed ballots, that would trigger a snap election before year-end. Traders therefore assign low probability to such an outcome occurring in the final months of 2026.