The market's 100% "No" probability reflects the September 30, 2026 deadline passing without Sam Altman signing the Pacing the Frontier statement, an employee-led July 2026 document urging U.S. government support for tools to deliberately slow frontier AI progress amid risks of uncontrolled automated research. Altman publicly endorsed related ideas in September, including independent evaluators with employee-level access and safety cases before major training runs, but he stopped short of signing the statement itself despite support from figures like Dario Amodei and some OpenAI staff. This outcome aligns with historical patterns where lab leaders avoid direct endorsement of employee petitions to preserve flexibility on competitive timelines. A last-minute verified signature or retroactive clarification could theoretically shift resolution, though none has materialized by the current date.