Rising inflation pressures, with August CPI at 4.82% and further upside risks from crude oil above $100 per barrel plus weather-related food costs, represent the primary driver behind the 77% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point repo rate increase at the RBI’s October 7 decision. Resilient GDP growth around 6.6% for FY2027 provides policy space for tightening without derailing expansion, while a weaker rupee and global central bank shifts add to hawkish sentiment. Economist polls show broad consensus for the 25 bps move to 5.50%, with limited odds assigned to larger hikes or a hold amid expectations of a shallow tightening cycle ahead.