Recent polling from mid-May shows Brad Lander holding a commanding lead over incumbent Dan Goldman among likely Democratic primary voters in New York’s 10th Congressional District, consistent with the current market pricing. Lander benefits from endorsements by Mayor Zohran Mamdani and Senator Bernie Sanders, along with strong support among younger voters and progressives in the district covering parts of Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn. Goldman, seeking a third term, draws backing from Governor Kathy Hochul and Representative Hakeem Jeffries but trails significantly in surveys. The June 23 primary remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts driven by turnout, additional endorsements, or late campaign developments, though trader consensus currently reflects Lander’s dominant position based on available evidence.