Rebeca Grynspan leads the market at 38.5% due to her strong performance in the first Security Council straw poll on 30 July 2026, where she received the highest number of encourage votes among GRULAC candidates. The process follows geographic rotation norms favoring a Latin American and Caribbean successor to António Guterres, whose term ends 31 December 2026. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18.8% advanced after topping the 21 August poll with eight encourage votes, reflecting her UN Permanent Representative role and diplomatic experience. Rafael Grossi at 13.5% and María Fernanda Espinosa at 12.7% trail amid divided support and higher discourage votes in later rounds. Remaining candidates show limited backing in ongoing informal ballots, which continue to shape trader consensus ahead of a formal Security Council recommendation.