Recent developments have left US-Iran diplomacy in a fragile state following the June 17 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window for broader talks on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and the Strait of Hormuz. July strikes and mutual accusations of violations prompted Iran to suspend direct engagement and demand compensation, while US officials describe ongoing low-key or indirect messaging through Oman and Qatar. Technical discussions in Doha focused on maritime access and asset releases without advancing nuclear talks, and both sides continue exchanging proposals amid competing priorities like shipping routes and regional ceasefires. Upcoming Oman-mediated steps on Hormuz access and any US sanctions adjustments could determine whether a new round materializes before the original timeline expires.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIran says no progress made on reviving interim peace deal with US
August 15 dips to 0%2%
A senior Iranian source stated there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June, signaling stalled diplomacy and contributing to market declines toward zero probability for August 15 resolution.
Pakistan Defence Minister signals hope for US-Iran peace arrangement
August 31 jumps to 43%10%
On August 11, Pakistan's Defence Minister indicated positive signals pointing toward a peace arrangement between the US and Iran, reflecting ongoing regional diplomatic efforts. This temporarily boosted market expectations for a near-term formal peace talks round, especially for the August 31 outcome.
Pakistan officials report US-Iran close to peace arrangement, hold Tehran talks
August 31 rises to 20%1%
Pakistan's Defense Minister and Interior Minister engaged with Iranian officials and reported that the US and Iran were close to some sort of arrangement, providing a modest boost to market confidence for talks by late August and September.
Pakistan officials report US-Iran close to peace arrangement amid ongoing talks
September 30 rises to 56%4%
Pakistan's Defense and Interior Ministers reported that the US and Iran were close to some sort of peace arrangement, with ongoing talks in Tehran and Islamabad. This raised hopes for a deal but lacked confirmation of a formal senior-level round, causing moderate market gains.
Iran reiterates no direct US talks unless demands met
August 15 plunges to 1%29%
Iran publicly stated it would not engage in direct negotiations with the US until certain conditions were met, including ceasefire and sanctions relief, reinforcing skepticism about near-term formal talks and contributing to market declines in probabilities.
Iran denies direct talks with US, sets conditions for negotiations
August 15 dips to 6%1%
Iran publicly reiterated that it was not holding direct negotiations with the US and would not restart talks until Washington met specific conditions including ceasefire, lifting sanctions, and compensation. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in near-term formal senior-level talks, especially for August 15 and August 31 outcomes.
Iran reiterates refusal of direct US talks, sets conditions for reopening Strait of Hormuz
August 15 drops to 2%6%
Iran declared it would not engage in direct negotiations with the US unless Washington met specific conditions including ceasefire, lifting sanctions, and unfreezing assets, reinforcing skepticism about near-term formal talks and causing market declines.
Iran declares no direct talks with US unless demands met
August 15 drops to 6%5%
Iran reiterated it was not holding direct negotiations with the US and would not restart talks until Washington met conditions, dampening market expectations for imminent formal peace talks.
Iran reiterates no direct talks with US unless demands met
August 31 drops to 39%5%
Iran publicly stated it would not resume direct negotiations with the US until Washington met specific conditions, including ceasefire and sanctions relief, reinforcing the stalemate and reducing market expectations for a formal talks round by August deadlines.
Iran denies direct talks with US, sets conditions for resuming negotiations
August 31 plunges to 22%15%
On August 9, Iran reiterated that it was not holding direct negotiations with the US and would not restart talks until Washington met certain conditions, including lifting sanctions and ending violations of the Islamabad Memorandum. This hardened stance reduced market confidence in near-term formal talks, causing price declines for August 31 and August 15 options.
Iranian President says Iran will continue 'path of peace' if US builds trust
September 30 dips to 44%2%
On August 9, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Iran would continue pursuing peace with the US under the memorandum of understanding, but emphasized that progress depends on the US creating an atmosphere of trust. This statement indicated conditional openness to talks but maintained caution, influencing market sentiment for later talks.
Iran reiterates no direct US talks unless demands met, threatens Strait closure
August 31 plunges to 20%15%
Iran publicly stated it would not resume direct negotiations with the US until Washington met specific conditions, including ceasefire and sanctions relief, while threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz again, dampening market expectations for near-term formal talks.
Iran reiterates no direct talks with US unless demands met
August 15 dips to 5%3%
Iran publicly stated it would not resume direct negotiations with the US until Washington met specific conditions, including ceasefire and sanctions relief, reinforcing the stalemate and causing market confidence in near-term talks to decline sharply.
Iran declares no direct talks with U.S. unless demands met, as regional issues threaten peace
August 31 plunges to 12%31%
Iran reiterated that it is not holding direct negotiations with the US and would not restart diplomatic talks until Washington meets certain conditions, including lifting sanctions and ending the naval blockade. This hardened stance reduced market optimism for near-term formal talks.
Iran accuses Trump of 'theater diplomacy' amid conflicting accounts of talks
September 30 dips to 73%4%
Iran's parliament speaker criticized US President Trump’s diplomacy as 'theater,' while both sides gave conflicting reports on whether talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were happening, increasing market uncertainty and contributing to price volatility.
Iran accuses US of 'theater diplomacy' amid conflicting accounts of talks
August 15 drops to 10%9%
Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator accused US President Trump of 'theater diplomacy' as Washington and Tehran gave sharply conflicting accounts of whether talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were taking place. This deepened doubts about the sincerity and timing of formal peace talks, maintaining low market confidence for early August rounds.
Iran accuses Trump of 'theater diplomacy' amid conflicting accounts of talks
August 31 dips to 41%4%
Iran's parliament speaker criticized US President Trump for 'theater diplomacy' as Washington and Tehran gave sharply different reports on whether talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz were happening, contributing to market volatility and doubts about formal talks.
Trump announces cancellation of major strikes on Iran and new round of talks
September 30 rises to 77%4%
On August 5, 2026, President Trump announced he called off the biggest planned attack on Iran after requests from Iran and Middle Eastern countries, stating parameters of a possible peace deal had been agreed to. This announcement increased market optimism for a formal senior-level round by September 30.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran, announces new round of talks
August 31 jumps to 55%11%
President Trump announced cancellation of a major planned attack on Iran after requests from Iran and regional countries, signaling a willingness to pursue peace talks. This announcement temporarily boosted market optimism for talks by late August.
US, Iran, and Oman close to interim agreement on Strait of Hormuz
August 31 dips to 43%2%
Negotiations among the US, Iran, and Oman edged closer to an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes for broader peace talks between Tehran and Washington.
Qatar reports drafts of potential US-Iran agreement circulating, no direct talks
August 31 drops to 49%5%
Qatar's Foreign Ministry stated that drafts of a short-term diplomatic solution between the US and Iran were in advanced stages, but emphasized no direct talks were scheduled, maintaining cautious optimism and influencing market sentiment.
US-led talks scheduled in Rome for August 4-6 amid ongoing mediation
August 31 jumps to 53%8%
A US State Department official confirmed that US-led talks involving regional mediators would take place in Rome from August 4-6, representing the next scheduled engagement within the August 31 window. This announcement supported a moderate increase in market confidence for talks by August 31.
Qatar reports drafts of potential US-Iran agreement circulating, but no direct talks yet
September 30 jumps to 72%5%
Qatar's Foreign Ministry indicated that drafts of a short-term diplomatic solution were in circulation and talks were in progressive stages, but emphasized no direct US-Iran talks were scheduled, sustaining cautious market optimism.
Qatar confirms progress in indirect US-Iran peace talks
September 30 jumps to 72%8%
Qatari mediators confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran were in very progressive stages, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but not a formal senior-level round, which tempered market optimism for near-term formal talks.
Iran continues Hormuz talks with Oman, US signals optimism on deal
On August 4, 2026, Iran continued talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, while the US expressed cautious optimism about progress, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no confirmed senior-level peace talks, sustaining moderate market confidence for later dates.
US signals optimism on Iran talks as Iran continues Hormuz discussions with Oman
September 30 jumps to 76%6%
US officials expressed hope for resumption of talks soon and progress toward a major deal to restore peace in the region, while Iran continued negotiations with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz. This sustained diplomatic activity supported market confidence for talks by late August and September.
Qatar confirms US-Iran indirect peace talks in progressive stages
August 31 jumps to 46%7%
Qatari mediators publicly confirmed that indirect US-Iran peace talks were ongoing and progressing, signaling diplomatic engagement despite the absence of formal senior-level meetings, which maintained some market optimism for later talks.
Iran continues Hormuz talks with Oman, US signals optimism on deal
August 31 jumps to 54%5%
Iran emphasized ongoing talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, while US officials expressed hope for resumption of talks, reflecting indirect diplomacy but no formal senior-level meeting, causing mixed market reactions.
Qatar confirms indirect US-Iran peace talks in progressive stages
September 30 jumps to 73%11%
Qatari mediators publicly confirmed that indirect peace talks between the US and Iran were in very progressive stages, though no direct talks were officially scheduled. This raised cautious optimism but did not confirm a formal senior-level round, causing moderate market gains.
Qatari mediators confirm US-Iran indirect peace talks in progressive stages
September 30 jumps to 73%6%
Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed that indirect talks between the US and Iran were in very progressive stages, marking a diplomatic development but not a formal senior-level round, which limited market gains.
US Secretary of State Rubio says progress made in Hormuz talks but no final deal
September 30 rises to 71%2%
Marco Rubio acknowledged progress in discussions involving Iran and Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz but noted no final agreement had been reached, reflecting cautious optimism and contributing to moderate market price increases.
Qatar confirms US-Iran indirect peace talks in progressive stages
September 30 rises to 73%4%
Qatari mediators confirmed that indirect peace talks between the US and Iran were ongoing and in very progressive stages, signaling some diplomatic progress but not a formal senior-level round. This tempered market optimism and maintained moderate price levels.
US and Iran continue technical talks in Switzerland amid regional tensions and mediation
August 31 jumps to 54%11%
Technical-level talks continued in Switzerland in early August 2026, with mediators from Pakistan and Qatar facilitating discussions despite ongoing regional hostilities and Iran's rejection of direct talks with the US. This maintained cautious market optimism for future formal negotiations.
US-led talks on Lebanon peace to take place in Rome August 4-6
August 31 drops to 43%12%
A US State Department official announced that US-led talks involving Lebanon and Israel will take place in Rome from August 4 to 6, representing the next scheduled diplomatic engagement in the region. However, these talks do not qualify as a formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks round, maintaining uncertainty about the timing of the next formal US-Iran meeting.
Trump touts incoming peace deal with Iran despite Tehran's denial of talks
August 31 dips to 37%4%
On August 3, President Trump stated that new negotiations with Iran would be the Islamic republic's 'last chance' for a decent deal, while Iran publicly denied direct talks were occurring. This conflicting messaging caused market uncertainty and volatility, impacting the August 31 and August 15 options negatively.
President Trump calls new Iran talks 'last chance' amid Tehran's denial
September 30 rises to 65%1%
On August 3, President Trump stated that new negotiations with Iran would be the Islamic republic’s 'last chance' to get a decent deal, while Iran denied any talks were taking place. This conflicting messaging caused market volatility and reflected uncertainty about the timing of the next formal senior-level round.
Iran denies direct talks with US despite Trump's claims
September 30 drops to 53%8%
Iran's foreign ministry publicly denied any direct negotiations with the US, contradicting President Trump's statements and casting doubt on the imminence of a formal senior-level peace talks round, which pressured market confidence downward.
Iran denies any direct peace talks with the US despite Trump's claims
August 7 plunges to 4%18%
Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied that any direct negotiations with the United States were taking place, contradicting President Trump's statements about new talks starting. This denial introduced uncertainty and skepticism about the imminence of formal senior-level talks.
Trump calls Iranian leadership 'unbelievably duplicitous' after denial of talks
August 15 plunges to 24%16%
Following Iran's denial of peace talks, President Trump accused the Iranian leadership of duplicity and insisted that negotiations were ongoing, framing the situation as a last chance for Iran to reach a deal. This statement maintained market attention on the possibility of talks despite official denials.
Regional mediators continue efforts amid US-Iran negotiation uncertainty
Despite public contradictions, regional actors such as Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan continued mediation efforts, with plans for US-led technical sessions in Rome in early August. These ongoing diplomatic activities contributed to market uncertainty about the timing and seniority of the next formal talks.
Iran denies talks with US underway after Trump calls off attacks
August 7 dips to 3%1%
Iran officially denied any ongoing talks with the US following President Trump's announcement of new negotiations, contributing to market uncertainty and skepticism about formal senior-level talks.
President Trump announces US-Iran negotiations to begin Monday after shelving planned strike
August 15 jumps to 25%5%
On August 3, President Trump stated that new US-Iran peace talks would start on Monday, August 3, following his cancellation of planned military strikes on Iran. This announcement raised market optimism for a formal senior-level round of talks in early August.
Trump announces new negotiations with Iran to begin, despite Tehran's denials
September 30 jumps to 72%6%
President Trump stated new talks with Iran would start imminently and called it Iran's 'last chance' for a deal, while Iran denied any negotiations, creating mixed signals that influenced market volatility.
Trump announces new US-Iran negotiations to begin Monday, Iran denies direct talks
August 31 jumps to 45%12%
On August 3, 2026, President Trump announced new negotiations with Iran would start imminently, raising market hopes. However, Iran publicly denied direct talks with the US, maintaining only indirect discussions via Oman, which tempered market optimism.
US President Trump claims imminent talks and reopening of Strait of Hormuz
September 30 dips to 70%2%
On August 3, President Trump claimed that US-Iran talks were ongoing and that a deal could be reached soon to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and address denuclearization. However, Iran's foreign ministry denied any talks taking place, creating mixed signals and uncertainty in the market about near-term peace talks.
President Trump announces new US-Iran negotiations to begin Monday amid conflicting Iranian denials
August 31 surges to 43%24%
On August 3, 2026, President Trump publicly stated that new US-Iran peace talks were imminent and set to begin on Monday, raising market optimism. However, Iran denied direct talks with the US, emphasizing ongoing discussions with Oman and denying formal negotiations, creating uncertainty.
Trump touts incoming peace deal with Iran despite Tehran’s denial
September 30 rises to 66%4%
President Trump announced new negotiations with Iran would begin imminently, calling it Iran’s 'last chance' for a deal, while Iran denied direct talks, maintaining market uncertainty and volatility.
Trump claims talks are happening 'right now' despite Iran denial
August 15 plunges to 19%21%
On August 3, Trump claimed that peace talks with Iran were ongoing and described them as a last chance for a deal, while Iran's foreign ministry denied any talks with the US. This contradiction contributed to market volatility and skepticism about the immediacy of formal senior-level talks.
Trump announces US-Iran peace talks to begin Monday
August 7 jumps to 30%8%
President Trump publicly announced that US-Iran peace talks would start on Monday, August 3, signaling a shift toward diplomacy after pausing strikes. This announcement raised market optimism for a formal senior-level round of talks within the August 7 and August 15 windows.
Trump claims new Iran negotiations imminent despite Tehran's denial
September 30 jumps to 70%9%
President Trump claimed new negotiations with Iran were imminent and described them as the Islamic republic’s last chance for a deal, while Iran publicly denied any talks, causing market volatility and uncertainty about the timing of formal talks.
US President Trump announces US-Iran negotiations to begin Monday after shelving planned strike
August 7 jumps to 9%6%
On August 3, 2026, President Trump stated that mediated talks with Iran would begin on Monday, August 3, following diplomatic pressure from Gulf states and a pause in planned US military strikes. This announcement increased market optimism for a near-term formal senior-level round of talks.
Trump announces new US-Iran negotiations to start Monday
September 30 jumps to 61%8%
President Trump declared that new negotiations with Iran were set to begin imminently after calling off planned strikes, raising market hopes for a formal peace talks round. However, details on location and participants were not provided, creating uncertainty.
Iran denies direct negotiations with US, says talks only with Oman on Strait of Hormuz
August 31 plunges to 19%27%
Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied any direct talks with the US, stating negotiations were limited to Oman and focused on shipping routes, contradicting US claims and causing market uncertainty and price declines for near-term talks.
Trump confirms US-Iran peace talks to begin Monday after calling off strikes
August 7 rises to 9%3%
President Trump publicly confirmed that formal negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday, August 3, following the cancellation of military strikes. This official acknowledgment increased market confidence in a near-term senior-level diplomatic round.
Trump claims Strait of Hormuz could open ‘by tomorrow’ as Iran denies talks taking place
September 30 jumps to 59%6%
Trump publicly claimed that peace talks were progressing and a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was near, while Iran's foreign ministry denied any direct talks with the US. This conflicting information caused market swings and reflected uncertainty about the timing of formal talks.
Trump reiterates US-Iran peace talks set to start Monday amid ongoing mediation efforts
August 31 rises to 36%1%
On August 3, President Trump reaffirmed that US-Iran peace talks would begin Monday, while Iranian lawmakers acknowledged mediators' efforts to revive the June memorandum of understanding, sustaining market confidence for talks by late August.
Trump brands Iranian leadership 'unbelievably duplicitous' amid denials of talks
August 7 plunges to 2%20%
Despite Iran's Foreign Ministry denying ongoing negotiations, President Trump insisted talks were happening and criticized Iran's contradictory statements, creating uncertainty and volatility in market prices, especially lowering confidence in earlier resolution dates.
Trump announces new Iran negotiations to begin Monday
September 30 jumps to 70%9%
President Trump announced that new negotiations with Iran were set to begin on Monday, August 3, raising market optimism for a formal senior-level round of talks soon after.
Trump brands Iranian leadership 'unbelievably duplicitous' amid denied talks
September 30 dips to 66%4%
After Iran publicly denied engaging in direct negotiations, President Trump accused the Iranian leadership of duplicity, casting doubt on the progress of peace talks and causing market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Trump says new negotiations with Iran will be their 'last chance' for a deal
September 30 jumps to 73%7%
President Trump stated that upcoming negotiations with Iran represent their final opportunity to reach a peace agreement, reinforcing market expectations for a formal senior-level round of talks soon and boosting prices.
President Trump announces new US-Iran peace talks to start Monday amid Iran denials
August 15 jumps to 24%10%
On August 3, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that new US-Iran peace talks would begin on Monday, signaling a diplomatic push despite Iran's public denials of ongoing talks. This announcement temporarily boosted market optimism for talks by early August.
President Trump warns Iran of 'last chance' for peace deal amid stalled talks
August 15 plunges to 11%29%
On August 3, 2026, President Donald Trump warned Iran it had a final opportunity to agree to a peace deal or face severe consequences, while Iranian officials denied current negotiations with the US, reflecting stalled progress and uncertainty about near-term formal talks.
Trump claims talks with Iran imminent despite Tehran denial
August 15 plunges to 10%30%
President Trump claimed that new negotiations with Iran could produce a peace deal within days and that talks were ongoing with backing from regional countries, while Iran's foreign ministry denied any talks taking place. This conflicting messaging caused market volatility and skepticism about near-term formal talks.
Trump claims new US-Iran negotiations to begin this week despite Iranian denials
September 30 jumps to 69%6%
President Trump publicly stated that new negotiations with Iran would start soon and described them as the Islamic republic’s 'last chance' for a deal, while Iran’s foreign ministry denied any direct talks were taking place, creating market uncertainty.
Iran denies direct talks with US despite Trump's claims
August 15 drops to 30%10%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman publicly denied any direct negotiations with the US, stating talks were limited to Oman and focused on the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting US statements and causing market uncertainty and price declines for near-term outcomes.
Iran denies any direct talks with US despite Trump's claims
August 15 drops to 26%14%
Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied that any direct negotiations with the US were taking place, contradicting US statements and causing market skepticism about the imminence of formal senior-level talks.
Trump accuses Iranian leadership of duplicity amid denied talks
September 30 drops to 66%6%
After Iran denied ongoing negotiations, President Trump publicly criticized the Iranian leadership as 'unbelievably duplicitous,' casting doubt on the prospects of imminent formal talks and causing market volatility.
Iran denies direct talks with US, says only dealing with Oman
August 31 drops to 43%10%
Iran officially denied engaging in direct negotiations with the US, stating that talks were only occurring with Oman, which tempered market expectations for a formal senior-level round soon.
President Trump announces new US-Iran negotiations to start Monday
September 30 jumps to 61%8%
President Trump declared that new negotiations with Iran were set to begin imminently after calling off planned military strikes, signaling US optimism about a potential deal. This announcement raised market expectations for a near-term formal round of talks.
Iran denies direct peace talks with US after Trump cites progress
August 31 dips to 43%1%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman publicly denied any direct negotiations with the US, emphasizing that talks were limited to Oman and that no broader peace deal was imminent. This denial contradicted US statements and introduced uncertainty about the timing of formal talks.
Trump warns Iran of 'last chance' for peace deal amid public disagreement on talks
August 31 drops to 43%12%
President Trump warned Iran of a final opportunity to agree to a peace deal or face severe consequences, while Iran denied new talks were underway, increasing uncertainty about the timing of formal senior-level negotiations.
President Trump announces new Iran negotiations to start Monday
September 30 jumps to 61%8%
President Trump stated that new talks with Iran were set to begin on Monday after calling off planned massive strikes, signaling potential progress and raising market optimism temporarily.
Trump announces US-Iran peace talks to begin Monday, claims deal on Hormuz
September 30 jumps to 70%11%
US President Donald Trump announced that US-Iran peace talks would begin on Monday, August 3, claiming a deal on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a roadmap for nuclear negotiations. This announcement boosted market confidence for talks by later August dates despite Iran's denials.
Trump calls Iranian leadership ‘unbelievably duplicitous’ after Tehran denies talks resumed
August 15 jumps to 27%13%
President Trump expressed frustration with Iran's contradictory statements about peace talks, claiming Iran requested meetings but then denied discussions were happening. This skepticism contributed to market uncertainty and price volatility regarding imminent talks.
Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran, announces new talks to begin
September 30 jumps to 62%9%
President Trump announced the cancellation of planned military strikes on Iran and stated that new peace talks would begin imminently, boosting market optimism for a senior-level round of negotiations.
Trump calls Iranian leadership ‘unbelievably duplicitous’ after Tehran denies talks resumed
August 7 drops to 0%6%
President Trump expressed frustration with Iran's contradictory statements about peace talks, casting doubt on the likelihood of a meaningful deal soon. This skepticism contributed to price volatility and lowered confidence in talks by early August deadlines.
President Trump claims imminent new US-Iran negotiations and progress on Strait of Hormuz reopening
September 30 jumps to 73%8%
President Trump publicly stated that new negotiations with Iran would begin imminently and that progress had been made on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and denuclearization, briefly raising market optimism despite Iranian denials of talks.
Trump calls Iranian leadership ‘unbelievably duplicitous’ after Tehran denies talks resumed
September 30 jumps to 62%9%
President Trump accused Iran of duplicity after Tehran denied resuming talks, while Trump announced cancellation of planned strikes and claimed new negotiations would start, causing mixed market reactions.
President Trump announces US-Iran peace talks to begin Monday after calling off planned strikes
August 7 rises to 8%3%
On August 1, President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned attack on Iran and stated that peace talks would begin the following Monday, reviving market optimism for a formal senior-level round of talks in early August.
US mediators work to de-escalate tensions and revive Iran peace talks
September 30 jumps to 73%11%
In early August 2026, US mediators sought to reduce tensions following recent strikes and to revive peace talks with Iran. This effort led to a rise in market confidence for the September 30 outcome, reflecting hopes for a later formal senior-level round of talks.
President Trump announces cancellation of planned strikes and upcoming US-Iran talks
August 7 jumps to 30%8%
President Trump canceled planned strikes on Iran citing progress in talks and announced that peace talks with Iran would resume on Monday, August 3. This announcement boosted market optimism about a formal diplomatic round occurring soon.
Iran denies ongoing peace talks with US, vows to defend interests
August 31 plunges to 19%43%
Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied ongoing peace talks with the US and rejected US attempts to dictate timing of war and peace, causing a sharp decline in market confidence for near-term talks.
Iran denies ongoing peace talks with US, vows to defend interests
August 15 plunges to 35%28%
Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied ongoing peace talks with the US and rejected US attempts to dictate timing of war and peace, causing a sharp decline in market confidence for near-term talks.
Pakistan's Prime Minister hopes to host next round of US-Iran talks soon
September 30 jumps to 59%6%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting despite official Iranian caution.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister says no date set for next US-Iran talks, framework needed
August 7 drops to 1%5%
Iran's deputy foreign minister Saeed Khatibzadeh stated that no date has been set for the next round of US-Iran peace talks until a framework of understanding is agreed upon. This official statement dampened market expectations for talks by early August and contributed to low prices for the August 7 and August 15 outcomes.
President Trump cancels planned attack on Iran citing progress in talks
September 30 rises to 57%4%
On August 1 (reported July 31), President Trump announced cancellation of a planned attack on Iran due to progress in talks, boosting market optimism for a near-term formal peace round.
US and Iran agree to halt attacks and renew talks amid Gulf tensions
After a series of strikes and counterstrikes, the US and Iran agreed to halt hostilities and renew talks concerning the Strait of Hormuz dispute, indicating a fragile but ongoing diplomatic process and positively impacting market expectations for future negotiations.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister warns safe passage through Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements, raising regional tensions and complicating the peace process, which affected market confidence.
Mediators work to de-escalate US-Iran tensions and revive talks after strikes
Following US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations, mediators sought to de-escalate tensions and keep talks on track. US officials reiterated preference for diplomacy but warned Iran to comply, reflecting fragile peace prospects and uncertainty about formal talks resuming soon.
US official confirms ongoing talks with Iran despite recent clashes
August 31 drops to 33%9%
On July 31, a US official confirmed that talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite renewed military clashes threatening the fragile ceasefire, maintaining low market confidence for near-term formal talks but indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement.
Pakistan urges US and Iran to resume talks under Islamabad MoU amid rising tensions
On July 30, 2026, Pakistan publicly urged the US and Iran to exercise restraint and resume technical-level talks under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, emphasizing the need to preserve the interim peace agreement amid escalating hostilities and regional tensions.
Officials from Iran and Oman hold talks on maritime navigation through Strait of Hormuz
Iran and Oman officials discussed maritime navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a key issue in stalled peace talks, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts despite military tensions.
President Trump warns of strong military action if Iran talks fail
Trump warned that military strikes could resume if diplomatic talks with Iran do not yield a deal, reinforcing the high stakes and contributing to market volatility and uncertainty.
Trump expresses optimism on peace deal prospects amid paused fighting
President Trump voiced optimism about a negotiated peace deal with Iran as fighting paused for a third day, but Iran maintained control of the Strait of Hormuz and showed no interest in resuming talks, sustaining market uncertainty.
US and Iran indirect technical talks continue amid ongoing tensions
August 31 dips to 43%2%
On July 28, indirect technical talks between US and Iranian officials continued in Doha under mediation, focusing on implementation details of the ceasefire and peace framework, but no formal senior-level round was announced, sustaining market uncertainty about near-term formal talks.
US pauses strikes, Iran reiterates no current negotiations with US
On July 27, after nearly two weeks of strikes, the US paused military actions against Iran to allow talks to develop, but Iran reiterated it was not currently engaging in peace talks with the US, maintaining a firm stance against US timing control of war and peace. This mixed messaging contributed to market uncertainty.
President Trump says Iran is begging for peace talks after two weeks of bombing
President Trump announced that US negotiators were in contact with Iran and expressed hope for a new peace deal, briefly boosting market optimism despite Iranian denials of formal talks.
US pauses strikes; Iran denies current negotiations with US
August 15 plunges to 11%19%
On July 27, 2026, the US halted bombing campaigns to allow space for peace talks, but Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied ongoing negotiations and rejected US timing for war and peace decisions. This mixed messaging maintained low market confidence in near-term formal talks.
US pauses new strikes; Iran reiterates no current negotiations with US
August 31 drops to 34%9%
Following a pause in US strikes, Iran reaffirmed it was not engaging in peace talks with the US, maintaining skepticism about near-term formal senior-level negotiations and contributing to market uncertainty.
Iran denies current negotiations with US as US pauses strikes
August 31 drops to 39%5%
Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there are no talks underway with the US and rejected US timing on war and peace, while the US paused bombing to allow talks to develop, causing market uncertainty and price declines for near-term talks.
Iran says no current negotiations with US amid US pause in strikes
August 7 dips to 1%2%
Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there are no talks underway with the US and that Tehran will not allow the US to determine timing of war and peace, following a US pause in strikes. This statement reinforced skepticism about near-term formal talks, contributing to low market prices for early August dates.
Iran denies current peace talks with US, vows to defend interests
July 31 plunges to 63%21%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly denied ongoing peace talks with the US and stated it would not allow the US to dictate timing of war and peace. This official denial countered US statements and contributed to sharp market declines in probabilities for near-term talks.
President Trump says US negotiators in talks with Iran, chance for new peace deal
President Trump stated that US negotiators were speaking with Iran and there was a chance to reach a new peace deal after renewed fighting. This statement briefly raised market hopes for imminent formal talks, though Iran denied current negotiations, sustaining market volatility.
President Trump says negotiators speaking to Iran, chance for new peace deal
August 31 jumps to 43%9%
President Trump announced ongoing negotiations with Iran and a chance for a new peace deal after renewed fighting, briefly boosting market optimism for talks by late July or August.
Iran denies current negotiations with US, vows to defend interests
July 31 drops to 35%8%
Iran's Foreign Ministry stated no talks are underway with the US and emphasized defending its interests, contributing to market uncertainty and dampening expectations for imminent formal talks.
Iran denies current negotiations with US as US pauses strikes
August 7 drops to 4%5%
On July 27, Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there were no talks underway with the US and that Tehran would not allow the US to determine timing of war and peace. This official denial amid a US pause in strikes contributed to market skepticism about near-term formal senior-level talks.
Iran denies current peace talks with US amid US pause in strikes
August 7 dips to 0%3%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry publicly stated that there are no ongoing peace talks with the US and emphasized that Tehran will not allow the US to dictate the timing of war and peace. This statement followed a US pause in bombing campaigns and contributed to market skepticism about near-term formal senior-level talks.
US President Trump says negotiators are speaking to Iran, sees chance for peace deal
September 30 rises to 63%4%
President Trump stated on July 27 that US negotiators were speaking to the Iranian side and there was a chance to reach a new peace deal after nearly two weeks of fighting, raising some optimism about ongoing diplomatic engagement despite public denials by Iran.
US pauses new strikes; Iran says no current negotiations with US
August 15 drops to 19%9%
On July 27, after a pause in US bombing campaigns, Iran reiterated that it was not currently engaging in peace talks with the US and would defend its interests. This maintained market skepticism about imminent formal senior-level peace talks despite the pause in hostilities.
US pauses new strikes on Iran amid ongoing technical talks, Iran denies current negotiations
August 31 dips to 45%4%
On July 27, 2026, the US announced a pause in strikes to allow space for talks, but Iran's Foreign Ministry denied engaging in peace talks with the US, creating market uncertainty and lowering confidence in near-term formal senior-level talks.
President Trump says US negotiators are speaking to Iran, chance for new peace deal
Trump announced that US negotiators were in contact with Iran and expressed hope for a new peace deal after renewed fighting, which briefly boosted market optimism despite Iran denying direct talks.
US pauses new strikes; Iran denies current negotiations with US
August 7 plunges to 0%22%
The US announced a pause in strikes to allow talks with Iran to develop, but Iran's Foreign Ministry denied any current negotiations with the US and stated it would not allow the US to dictate timing of war and peace. This created uncertainty and lowered confidence in near-term formal talks by early August.
US pauses strikes on Iran to allow space for talks, but Iran denies current negotiations
August 7 dips to 5%4%
On July 27, 2026, the US halted bombing campaigns to create space for peace talks, but Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there were no ongoing talks and rejected US timing for war and peace decisions, maintaining low confidence in near-term formal senior-level talks.
US pauses strikes on Iran to allow talks, Iran denies current negotiations
August 31 drops to 33%6%
The US paused military strikes on Iran following advice from military officials to allow diplomatic talks to develop, but Iran denied engaging in direct negotiations, creating mixed signals and market uncertainty.
Trump warns of strong military action if Iran talks fail
August 31 drops to 39%5%
President Trump warned that military action would resume if diplomacy failed, reflecting the high stakes of the talks and causing market fluctuations due to uncertainty about the talks' success.
Iran rules out US talks as Strait of Hormuz remains closed
August 7 dips to 6%3%
Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed no request to resume talks with the US and stated the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, dampening expectations for imminent senior-level talks and impacting market prices negatively.
Pakistan's Prime Minister hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
August 31 rises to 44%4%
On July 27, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly expressed hope to host the next round of US-Iran peace talks soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and temporarily boosting market expectations for a near-term meeting.
President Trump says Iran is begging for peace talks after two weeks of bombing
September 30 rises to 57%4%
President Trump stated on July 27, 2026, that US negotiators were in contact with Iranian officials and that there was a chance for a new peace deal despite ongoing fighting. This statement briefly boosted market confidence in the possibility of formal talks soon.
President Trump says Iran is eager for peace talks after renewed fighting
August 31 jumps to 46%8%
On July 27, 2026, President Trump stated that US negotiators were in contact with Iranian counterparts and that there was a chance for a new peace deal despite ongoing conflict. This statement slightly boosted market optimism for talks by late July, though Iran maintained a defensive stance.
Iran says no current negotiations with US as US pauses new strikes
July 31 drops to 2%12%
Iran's Foreign Ministry denied ongoing peace talks with the US and emphasized it would not allow the US to dictate timing of war and peace, while the US paused bombing, creating uncertainty and causing market prices to drop sharply.
US pauses strikes; Iran denies current negotiations with US
August 7 plunges to 5%17%
On July 27, 2026, the US halted bombing campaigns to allow space for peace talks, but Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there were no ongoing talks and rejected US timing for war and peace decisions. This mixed signal maintained low confidence in near-term formal senior-level talks, reflected in low market prices for early August outcomes.
US official says President Trump giving talks ‘some space’ amid diplomatic efforts
August 31 jumps to 46%5%
A top US official indicated that President Trump is allowing diplomatic talks with Iran some space to develop after recent escalations, suggesting a cautious but ongoing diplomatic engagement despite military tensions.
US Ambassador Mike Waltz says President Trump is giving talks with Iran 'some space' amid pause in strikes
The U.S. announced a pause in military strikes to allow diplomatic talks with Iran to develop at various levels, signaling ongoing engagement and contributing to some market stabilization for later negotiation dates.
US official says Trump giving talks 'some space' amid ongoing tensions
August 31 jumps to 38%10%
A top US official stated that President Trump was allowing diplomatic talks with Iran to develop during a pause in strikes, indicating a window for negotiations despite ongoing conflict, which briefly lifted market optimism.
US Ambassador to UN says Trump giving talks 'some space' amid pause in strikes
August 31 rises to 47%4%
US Ambassador Mike Waltz stated that President Trump was allowing diplomatic talks with Iran to develop during a pause in military strikes, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts and supporting market confidence.
US pauses airstrikes on Iran amid diplomatic efforts to avert war
August 31 rises to 46%3%
The US military paused airstrikes after nearly two weeks of bombing, signaling a potential de-escalation and space for diplomacy, which raised hopes for peace talks and influenced market optimism.
US pauses strikes on Iran as China pushes for renewed peace talks and Pakistan mediates
On July 25, 2026, President Trump ordered a pause in military strikes on Iran, while China urged renewed US-Iran diplomatic negotiations and Pakistan intensified mediation efforts. This development slightly improved market sentiment for talks by late August.
US halts new strikes on Iran after 13 days, Trump says talks getting serious
August 31 drops to 24%6%
The US did not announce new strikes for the first time in two weeks, and President Trump indicated talks with Iran were becoming more serious. This pause raised hopes for diplomacy but was met with skepticism from Iran, causing market volatility.
US pauses military strikes on Iran to allow diplomatic talks space
The US halted nearly two weeks of strikes to give diplomatic talks room to develop, signaling a potential de-escalation and supporting cautious market optimism for later resolution dates.
President Trump says US and Iran remain in talks; Tehran 'getting more serious'
August 31 jumps to 44%5%
Trump expressed belief that Iran was becoming more serious about talks, supporting some market recovery in expectations for future negotiations.
Trump says US and Iran remain in talks, Iran 'getting more serious'
August 31 rises to 46%2%
President Trump stated that the US and Iran were still engaged in talks and that Iran appeared to be more serious about negotiations, which supported market optimism for future peace talks.
President Trump signals ongoing US-Iran talks amid military escalation
President Trump stated that the US and Iran remain in talks and that Tehran is "getting more serious," even as military conflict continued and the US considered escalation. This suggested some diplomatic engagement, supporting market optimism for talks by later dates.
No public confirmation of new formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks by July 31
July 31 dips to 5%3%
Despite ongoing technical talks and diplomatic efforts, no formal senior-level peace talks round between the US and Iran was publicly acknowledged or reported by July 24, leading to a sharp decline in market confidence for a July 31 start.
US President Trump says Iran is 'getting more serious' in talks
Trump stated that Iran appeared more serious in ongoing negotiations, raising hopes for progress but also warning that military action could continue if talks fail, causing mixed market reactions.
US and Iran signal no imminent return to negotiating table amid renewed fighting
August 15 plunges to 7%21%
Both countries escalated attacks deep into a second week of fighting, with Iranian officials denying formal negotiations and US officials warning of retaliation, leading to low market confidence for near-term peace talks.
US and Iran signal no imminent return to formal peace talks amid renewed fighting
July 31 dips to 6%3%
Both the US and Iran escalated attacks deep into a second week of renewed fighting, signaling they are not ready to return to the negotiating table. Iranian officials denied ongoing negotiations, and US President Trump threatened further strikes, leading to very low market confidence for talks by July 31 and August 31.
US and Iran signal they aren’t ready to return to negotiating table amid escalated attacks
July 31 drops to 35%9%
Both countries escalated attacks deep into a second week of fighting, with Iranian officials stating no negotiations were occurring, only message exchanges, and US President Trump threatening further strikes, reducing market confidence in imminent formal talks.
Iran announces suspension of obligations under Islamabad Memorandum amid renewed hostilities
On July 18, 2026, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister officially announced the suspension of all obligations under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding following renewed attacks and escalating tensions, effectively suspending the peace process and causing market confidence to collapse for near-term talks.
Iran denies imminent peace talks resumption amid US strikes
August 7 plunges to 0%22%
On July 17, 2026, Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there were no talks underway with the US and rejected reports of imminent senior-level peace talks, maintaining low market confidence for talks by mid-July and causing prices to drop sharply.
Iran denies ongoing formal peace talks with US, rejects US timing on war and peace
August 7 plunges to 7%15%
On July 17, 2026, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied that formal peace talks with the US were underway and stated it would not allow the US to dictate timing of war and peace, causing a sharp decline in market confidence for near-term formal talks.
Iran's President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations
July 31 rises to 24%1%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's visit to Pakistan, a key mediator, signaled continued diplomatic engagement following the June 22 talks, raising some market optimism for upcoming formal talks though no new round was confirmed.
US affirms continuation of technical talks with Iran despite recent clashes
August 31 drops to 48%14%
Despite renewed US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliations, US officials confirmed that technical talks for a lasting peace deal continue, but no formal senior-level peace talks were announced, maintaining low market confidence for talks by July 17 or 31.
Iranian President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Pakistani officials mediating the peace talks, signaling continued diplomatic engagement and supporting market optimism for upcoming talks.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif expresses hope to host next round of US-Iran talks soon
August 31 jumps to 54%11%
On July 17, Pakistan's Prime Minister publicly stated hopes to host the next round of US-Iran talks very soon in Islamabad, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
Iran denies current peace talks with US, says will not allow US to dictate timing of war and peace
August 7 drops to 9%13%
On July 17, 2026, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied that formal peace talks with the US were underway, stating Tehran would not allow the US to dictate timing of war and peace. This caused a sharp decline in market confidence for near-term formal talks.
Pakistan's Prime Minister expresses hope to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
August 31 surges to 24%16%
On July 11, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and temporarily boosting market expectations for a near-term meeting.
Pakistan's Prime Minister expresses hope to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
August 15 jumps to 38%12%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly stated hopes to host the next round of US-Iran talks very soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting mid-July pricing.
Reports indicate next formal US-Iran peace talks expected July 11 in Islamabad
August 15 jumps to 38%12%
Reports emerged that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks was expected to resume on July 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, following the conclusion of Iran's Supreme Leader funeral ceremonies. This sustained market optimism for a meeting by mid-July.
Iran declares peace deal void after US attacks, escalating hostilities
August 7 plunges to 1%21%
On July 15, Iran publicly stated the peace deal was void following US military strikes, marking a significant escalation in hostilities. This development effectively ended hopes for imminent senior-level peace talks, driving the July 17 outcome price to near zero and depressing expectations for talks by late July and August.
Iran hints openness to talks after releasing Iranian American citizen
July 31 dips to 13%3%
On July 17, 2026, Iran released an Iranian American citizen and its chief negotiator suggested possible openness to talks, signaling a slight diplomatic thaw. However, longstanding tensions and recent military actions kept the prospects for formal senior-level talks uncertain, reflected in continued low market prices for near-term negotiations.
Pakistan's Prime Minister expresses hope to host next US-Iran talks soon
On July 17, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly stated hopes to host the next round of US-Iran talks soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and temporarily raising market expectations for a near-term meeting.
Pakistan hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon, PM says
August 31 rises to 8%1%
Pakistan's Prime Minister expressed intentions to host the next round of US-Iran peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market optimism for talks by late July and August.
Pakistan's Prime Minister hopes to host next round of US-Iran talks soon
On July 17, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope to host the next round of US-Iran talks soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and temporarily boosting market expectations for a near-term meeting.
Iran denies imminent peace talks resumption amid US strikes
August 15 drops to 0%9%
On July 17, 2026, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied that formal peace talks with the US were underway, rejecting reports of imminent senior-level peace talks, which further depressed market confidence for near-term formal talks.
Iran's Supreme Leader authorizes Iranian delegation to participate in next US-Iran peace talks
Reports on July 17 indicated that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei gave permission for the Iranian negotiating team to join another round of peace talks with the US, signaling potential progress and raising market optimism for talks by mid-July.
Pakistan's Prime Minister hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
August 31 jumps to 54%11%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly expressed hope to host the next round of US-Iran talks soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and temporarily boosting market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting mid-July pricing.
Iran denies current peace talks with US, market confidence drops sharply
July 31 plunges to 3%60%
On July 17, Iran's Foreign Ministry publicly denied that formal peace talks with the US were underway, stating Tehran would not allow the US to dictate timing of war and peace. This caused a sharp decline in market confidence for near-term formal talks.
Iran hints at openness to talks amid ongoing tensions and ceasefire deadline
July 31 dips to 10%3%
On July 17, 2026, Iran’s chief negotiator suggested possible openness to talks, and Iran released an Iranian American citizen, signaling a potential diplomatic opening. However, longstanding tensions and unresolved issues kept market expectations for a formal senior-level round by July 31 or August 31 low.
Iran hints openness to talks after releasing Iranian-American citizen
On July 17, 2026, Iran released an Iranian-American citizen and its chief negotiator suggested possible openness to talks, signaling a slight diplomatic thaw. However, this did not translate into a formal senior-level round by the market cutoff, and tensions remained high.
Iran declares peace deal void after US attacks, escalating hostilities
July 17 dips to 0%2%
On July 15, 2026, Iran publicly stated the peace deal was void following US military strikes, marking a significant escalation in hostilities. This development effectively ended hopes for imminent senior-level peace talks, driving the July 17 outcome price to zero and further depressing July 31 and August 31 prices.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expresses hope for near-term US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad
August 31 jumps to 47%8%
On July 14, Pakistan's Prime Minister expressed optimism that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and briefly boosting market confidence for talks by late July.
Iran-US interim peace deal collapses amid renewed fighting and no concessions
July 31 drops to 21%11%
By mid-July, renewed fighting and Iran's refusal to make concessions led to the collapse of the interim peace deal signed in June. This diminished market confidence sharply in the likelihood of senior-level talks resuming by July 31, reflected in the price dropping to near lows.
Iran reiterates nuclear program stance amid collapse of interim peace deal
July 31 drops to 13%14%
By mid-July, the interim peace deal had effectively collapsed with resumed fighting and no public Iranian concessions on nuclear issues. This diminished prospects for formal senior-level talks by July 31, reflected in the market's low pricing for that outcome.
US and Iran sign preliminary agreement to extend ceasefire and reopen Strait of Hormuz
On June 15, 2026, US and Iranian officials reached a preliminary agreement aimed at extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, setting a 60-day negotiation period focused on Iran's nuclear activities. This initial framework raised hopes for further talks and positively influenced market expectations for future peace negotiations.
Reports indicate Islamabad as likely venue for next US-Iran technical talks
August 31 plunges to 46%16%
On July 5, reports emerged that Islamabad was the preferred location for the next round of US-Iran technical negotiations expected around July 11, raising market optimism for talks but no formal senior-level round was confirmed.
Pakistan's Prime Minister hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
July 17 surges to 63%42%
On July 11, 2026, Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
Next round of US-Iran negotiations set to resume in Pakistan after Khamenei funeral
July 31 surges to 54%49%
Negotiations between the US and Iran were reported to resume on July 11 in Pakistan following the conclusion of Iran's funeral ceremonies, focusing on sanctions, frozen funds, and nuclear program, supporting market confidence in a formal senior-level round by late July.
Reports indicate next formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks expected in Islamabad on July 11
July 17 jumps to 9%9%
Multiple credible sources reported that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks was likely to be held in Islamabad on July 11, raising market optimism for a meeting by mid-July despite Iran's public denials.
US President Trump declares ceasefire over but allows peace talks to continue
July 31 drops to 14%6%
President Trump stated the ceasefire with Iran was over following US strikes but indicated peace talks would continue, creating mixed signals and market uncertainty.
Mediators work to de-escalate US-Iran tensions and revive talks after strikes
Mediators intensified efforts to de-escalate tensions and get talks back on track following recent US-Iran strikes, with US officials expressing hope for Iran's compliance and engagement in talks toward a final deal.
US affirms continuation of technical talks with Iran despite recent clashes
July 31 drops to 9%7%
On July 10, 2026, US officials confirmed that technical talks with Iran would continue despite recent military clashes that threatened the ceasefire. However, no formal senior-level peace talks were announced, contributing to further market skepticism about talks resuming by July 31 or August 31.
U.S. affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
July 31 plunges to 35%19%
Despite recent military clashes threatening the ceasefire, U.S. officials stated that technical talks with Iran are ongoing, but no formal senior-level peace talks have been announced, maintaining low market confidence for a new senior-level round before mid-July.
US launches attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks, Iran denies imminent talks
July 31 plunges to 14%32%
The US launched multiple military strikes on Iran during ongoing peace talks and Iran's state funeral proceedings, while Iranian officials publicly denied reports of imminent formal US-Iran peace negotiations, severely undermining market confidence for senior-level talks by mid-July.
U.S. strikes Iran during state funeral, raising doubts on peace talks resumption
July 31 dips to 9%3%
On July 10, the U.S. conducted strikes on Iranian targets during Iran's state funeral proceedings, leading to Iranian retaliation and further eroding the ceasefire. President Trump declared the Memorandum of Understanding 'over' but allowed talks to continue, though he expressed skepticism. This event severely undermined market confidence in a new formal round by July 31 or August 31.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes; Iran denies imminent peace talks resumption
July 17 drops to 7%5%
Despite renewed US strikes on Iran and Iran's retaliations during the state funeral period, US officials stated that technical talks for a lasting peace deal continue. However, Iranian officials denied reports of imminent senior-level peace talks, maintaining low market confidence for talks by July 17 or 31.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, casting doubt on formal negotiations
On July 10, 2026, the US launched attacks on Iran for the third time during ongoing peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the resumption of formal senior-level talks, contributing to market declines for both July 31 and August 31 outcomes.
Pakistan hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks very soon, PM says
July 17 rises to 8%4%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
Trump says US agrees to continue talks with Iran but declares ceasefire 'over' amid renewed strikes
July 31 drops to 21%7%
Despite renewed US airstrikes on Iranian targets and escalating tensions, President Trump announced that the US agreed to continue talks with Iran at Iran's request, but stated that the ceasefire is officially over. This mixed message contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in confidence for near-term formal talks.
US official confirms ongoing technical talks with Iran despite clashes
July 31 drops to 20%5%
On July 10, a US official stated that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent clashes that threatened the fragile ceasefire. US officials reaffirmed commitment to ongoing technical talks, but no formal senior-level talks were announced, maintaining low market confidence for near-term formal talks.
U.S. military strikes on Iran during state funeral period raise doubts on talks
July 31 drops to 14%7%
On July 10, the U.S. conducted multiple strikes on Iranian targets during Iran's state funeral ceremonies, undermining the fragile ceasefire and casting doubt on the resumption of formal senior-level peace talks. President Trump declared the Memorandum of Understanding 'over' but indicated talks might continue, fueling market uncertainty and price declines for formal talks by July 31.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif holds talks with Iran and Qatar leaders to revive US-Iran negotiations
July 31 jumps to 24%7%
Pakistan's Prime Minister held discussions with Iranian and Qatari leaders to revive stalled US-Iran peace talks amid escalating tensions, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and slightly boosting market confidence for talks by late July.
Iran denies reports of imminent US-Iran peace talks resumption
July 17 drops to 0%14%
On July 10, 2026, Iranian officials publicly denied reports that formal US-Iran peace negotiations were about to resume, despite US claims that Iran sought to restart talks. This official denial reinforced market skepticism about near-term formal peace talks, impacting prices negatively for all near-term outcomes.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about resumption
July 17 drops to 0%14%
On July 10, 2026, the US launched attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings. This military action and President Trump's statements calling the memorandum of understanding 'over' undermined confidence in the resumption of formal senior-level peace talks by July 17, contributing to market price drops to near zero.
U.S. strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about resumption of formal talks
The U.S. launched attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings, casting doubt on the timing of any next formal senior-level round. President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding 'over' but allowed talks to continue, fueling market pessimism for near-term formal talks.
U.S. military strikes on Iran during ongoing peace talks undermine confidence
July 17 dips to 0%3%
The U.S. launched attacks on Iran during peace talks, including during Iran's state funeral proceedings, and President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding 'over.' These actions severely undermined market confidence in the resumption of formal senior-level peace talks by mid-July, driving prices for July 17 and July 31 outcomes sharply down to near zero.
US attacks Iran amid ongoing peace talks, Trump calls talks a 'waste of time'
July 31 plunges to 14%32%
On July 10, the US launched attacks on Iranian targets during ongoing technical talks, with President Trump publicly expressing skepticism about the talks' value. This undermined market confidence in imminent senior-level talks by July 31, contributing to a sharp price decline for that outcome.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about resumption
August 31 dips to 43%1%
On July 10, 2026, the US launched attacks on Iran during ongoing peace talks and state funeral proceedings, with President Trump declaring the memorandum of understanding "over" but still allowing talks to continue. This military escalation and ambiguous statements undermined market confidence in a near-term formal senior-level round of talks.
US strikes Iran amid ongoing peace talks, raising doubts about next formal round
July 31 dips to 10%4%
On July 10, 2026, the US launched strikes on Iran during ongoing peace talks, causing uncertainty about the resumption of formal senior-level negotiations. This event further decreased market confidence in talks occurring by July 31.
Iran denies reports of imminent US-Iran peace talks amid US military strikes
July 31 plunges to 13%23%
On July 10, 2026, Iranian officials publicly denied reports that formal US-Iran peace negotiations were about to resume, despite US claims that Iran sought to restart talks. Concurrent US military strikes on Iran and President Trump's declaration that the memorandum of understanding was 'over' severely undermined market confidence in near-term formal talks.
Mediators work to de-escalate US-Iran tensions and revive talks after recent strikes
July 31 dips to 34%4%
Mediators have been working to de-escalate tensions and get talks back on track after recent US and Iran strikes, with US officials expressing hope Iran will engage seriously in talks toward a final deal, though the ceasefire remains fragile.
US officials affirm commitment to technical talks despite renewed US-Iran clashes
July 31 drops to 37%7%
Despite renewed US airstrikes on Iran and Iranian retaliations in early July, US officials stated on July 10 that technical talks toward a permanent peace deal would continue. However, the ongoing military conflict and political rhetoric undermined confidence in formal senior-level talks resuming soon.
US launches strikes on Iran amid ongoing peace talks, Iran denies formal talks resumption
On July 10, 2026, the US launched multiple strikes on Iranian targets during ongoing technical talks, while Iranian officials publicly denied that formal peace negotiations were resuming. President Trump declared the memorandum of understanding 'over' but allowed talks to continue, causing a sharp decline in market confidence for near-term formal talks.
US official confirms continuation of US-Iran technical talks despite clashes
On July 10, a US official stated that technical talks with Iran were continuing despite recent clashes threatening the ceasefire, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no formal senior-level round, which contributed to market uncertainty about the timing of next formal talks.
US affirms commitment to technical talks despite recent strikes, peace talks uncertain
July 31 drops to 36%8%
Despite recent US strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliations, US officials stated commitment to continue technical talks but did not confirm a next formal senior-level round. President Trump expressed skepticism about peace talks, calling them a "waste of time," further dampening market confidence in a near-term formal round by July 31.
US-Iran peace talks uncertain after US strikes during Iran's state funeral
July 31 plunges to 6%15%
US attacks on Iran during the state funeral proceedings and ongoing strikes eroded the ceasefire and cast doubt on the timing of the next formal senior-level peace talks, causing market confidence to plummet for the July 31 outcome.
US says Iran technical talks to continue despite recent strikes
August 15 surges to 30%18%
A US official stated that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent clashes threatening the fragile ceasefire, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no formal senior-level round.
US says Iran technical talks to continue despite recent strikes
A US official confirmed that talks over a permanent peace deal with Iran were continuing despite recent clashes, maintaining some market confidence in ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Mediators work to de-escalate US-Iran tensions and revive talks after strikes
August 31 dips to 43%1%
Following US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations, mediators sought to de-escalate tensions and keep talks on track. US officials reiterated preference for diplomacy but warned Iran to comply, reflecting fragile peace prospects and uncertainty about formal talks resuming soon.
US mediators work to de-escalate tensions and revive Iran peace talks
July 31 plunges to 24%22%
Following a flurry of strikes between the US and Iran, mediators sought to de-escalate the conflict and get peace talks back on track, though President Trump declared the ceasefire over, creating uncertainty about near-term formal talks.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran and escalating tensions, US officials confirmed that technical talks with Iran aimed at a permanent peace deal would continue, maintaining diplomatic channels open amid conflict.
US officials reaffirm commitment to continue talks despite ceasefire collapse and strikes
Despite President Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was over, US officials reaffirmed Washington's commitment to continue negotiations with Iran. Technical talks were expected to continue, but the recent military strikes cast doubt on the timing of formal senior-level talks.
Iran denies plans for next round of peace talks amid US delegation visit
July 31 plunges to 33%30%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson publicly denied immediate plans for a next round of negotiations, causing a sharp decline in market confidence for early July deadlines.
Iran publicly denies ongoing formal peace talks with US despite technical discussions
Iran denied that formal peace talks were ongoing, calling US statements deceitful, while US officials acknowledged only technical talks. This discrepancy reduced market confidence in a formal senior-level round by mid-July.
U.S. official confirms continuation of technical talks despite recent strikes
July 31 drops to 16%9%
Despite renewed military clashes threatening the ceasefire, a U.S. official stated on July 9 that technical talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing. This reaffirmed ongoing dialogue but did not indicate a formal senior-level round, contributing to declining market confidence for a July 31 start.
US affirms continuation of technical talks despite recent military clashes with Iran
July 31 rises to 38%3%
US officials stated that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent clashes that threatened the fragile ceasefire, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but not a formal senior-level round.
US official confirms talks with Iran continue despite recent clashes
August 15 drops to 28%12%
A US official stated that talks over a permanent peace deal with Iran are continuing despite recent clashes threatening the fragile ceasefire, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no formal senior-level round.
Funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader delay next talks
July 31 drops to 57%5%
Following the death of Iran’s former supreme leader, funeral processions in early July delayed any potential formal senior-level talks. Qatar indicated the next meeting would occur after these events, contributing to market price declines for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US affirms commitment to technical talks despite recent strikes on Iran
July 17 drops to 14%9%
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran in early July 2026, a US official stated that technical talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing. This reaffirmation of ongoing technical discussions did not amount to formal senior-level peace talks, maintaining low market confidence for near-term formal negotiations.
US says Iran technical talks to continue despite recent strikes
Despite two days of clashes threatening the fragile ceasefire, US officials affirmed ongoing technical talks with Iran, maintaining some diplomatic engagement and market optimism for future talks.
US says Iran technical talks to continue despite recent strikes
A US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran were continuing despite recent clashes, maintaining some market optimism about ongoing diplomatic engagement and the possibility of formal talks soon.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
July 17 drops to 12%7%
On July 9, 2026, a US official stated that talks between the US and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing despite recent clashes that threatened the fragile ceasefire. This indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement but did not signal a formal senior-level round, maintaining low market confidence for talks by mid-July.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
July 31 drops to 14%7%
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Iran, US officials stated that technical talks with Iran are ongoing, signaling continued diplomatic engagement but raising doubts about formal senior-level talks resuming soon.
U.S. official confirms ongoing technical talks with Iran despite recent clashes
July 31 drops to 19%6%
Despite renewed military clashes threatening the fragile ceasefire, a U.S. official confirmed on July 9, 2026, that talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing, though no formal senior-level talks were announced. This maintained low market confidence for near-term formal talks.
U.S. affirms continuation of technical talks despite recent strikes
Despite recent military clashes threatening the ceasefire, a U.S. official confirmed on July 9 that technical talks with Iran would continue. This reaffirmation aimed to sustain diplomatic momentum but did not indicate the start of a new formal senior-level round, leading to continued market skepticism about near-term formal talks.
U.S. affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
Despite renewed military clashes and strikes between the U.S. and Iran, U.S. officials stated that technical talks aimed at a permanent peace deal are continuing. This ongoing uncertainty and conflict further reduced market confidence in a formal senior-level round by July 31.
US affirms continuation of technical talks with Iran despite recent strikes
August 15 dips to 37%3%
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran and escalating tensions, US officials confirmed that technical talks aimed at a permanent peace deal with Iran would continue, maintaining some diplomatic engagement.
US official confirms continuation of technical talks despite recent strikes
August 31 jumps to 54%10%
Despite renewed US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks, a US official stated on July 9 that technical talks aimed at a permanent peace deal were continuing. This reassured some market participants about ongoing diplomacy but did not indicate a formal senior-level round, contributing to price fluctuations.
US affirms commitment to continue technical talks despite recent strikes
On July 9, 2026, a US official stated that technical talks with Iran over a permanent peace deal would continue despite recent military clashes, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no formal senior-level round, which kept market confidence low for near-term formal talks.
U.S. official confirms ongoing technical talks with Iran despite recent military clashes
July 17 dips to 1%2%
Despite renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations in early July 2026, a U.S. official confirmed that talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing. However, no formal senior-level talks were announced, contributing to declining market confidence for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US official confirms continuation of technical talks with Iran despite recent military clashes
July 31 plunges to 35%26%
Despite renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations in early July 2026, a U.S. official confirmed that talks between the U.S. and Iran over a permanent peace deal were continuing. However, no formal senior-level talks were announced, contributing to declining market confidence for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US affirms continuation of technical talks with Iran despite recent strikes
August 31 drops to 33%7%
Despite recent US military strikes on Iran, US officials confirmed that technical talks aimed at a permanent peace deal would continue, maintaining some market optimism.
Mediators confirm US-Iran talks to resume after Khamenei funeral on July 9
July 31 jumps to 61%5%
Qatari and Pakistani mediators confirmed that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks would resume after the conclusion of Ali Khamenei’s funeral ceremonies on July 9. This confirmation solidified market expectations that no formal talks would occur before mid-July, supporting the higher probability for the July 31 outcome.
US conducts strikes on Iranian military targets amid ongoing tensions
July 17 drops to 23%12%
US military strikes on Iranian targets raised tensions and cast doubt on the peace process, contributing to a sharp decline in market confidence for a next formal peace talks round by July 17 and July 31.
US President Trump declares Iran peace memorandum 'over' amid renewed strikes
July 17 plunges to 3%20%
On July 8, US President Donald Trump stated that the memorandum of understanding with Iran was 'over' following renewed US strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations. This cast doubt on the continuation of formal senior-level peace talks and led to a sharp drop in market confidence for talks by July 17 and July 31.
US declares memorandum of understanding with Iran 'over' amid ongoing strikes
July 31 plunges to 44%15%
President Trump announced the MoU with Iran was "over" while peace talks could continue, coinciding with US military strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian retaliations. This escalation severely undermined confidence in imminent formal senior-level talks, driving prices sharply down for both July 31 and August 31 outcomes.
US President Trump declares Iran MoU 'over' but peace talks could continue amid strikes
July 31 plunges to 44%27%
On July 8, 2026, President Trump stated the memorandum of understanding with Iran was "over" while affirming peace talks could continue. This came amid US strikes on Iranian targets and rising tensions, signaling deteriorating relations and casting doubt on near-term formal peace talks, causing market declines.
US President Trump declares MoU with Iran 'over' but allows negotiators to continue talks
July 31 plunges to 57%16%
On July 8, 2026, President Trump publicly stated that the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 was 'over' from his perspective, signaling a breakdown in the ceasefire agreement. However, he permitted US negotiators to keep engaging with Iran, creating mixed signals that pressured market confidence downward for near-term talks.
US and Iran exchange military strikes amid ongoing technical talks, raising doubts on peace talks
July 31 drops to 35%12%
In early July 2026, the US launched multiple strikes on Iranian targets while technical talks continued, with Iran retaliating. These military actions eroded trust and led to US President Trump declaring the memorandum of understanding 'over,' causing further market declines in the likelihood of a next senior-level peace talks round by July 31.
Iran says no plans for next round of peace talks as US delegation heads to Islamabad
July 10 dips to 0%1%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated there were no immediate plans for a next round of negotiations, casting doubt on the timing of follow-up talks and causing market prices for early July deadlines to fall sharply to near zero.
US launches strikes on Iran amid escalating tensions, Trump declares ceasefire over but talks to continue
July 31 plunges to 45%27%
On July 8, the US launched multiple strikes on Iranian military targets, escalating tensions and leading President Trump to declare the ceasefire over while stating that talks with Iran would continue. This raised doubts about the peace process and caused market uncertainty.
US conducts second night of strikes on Iranian military targets amid peace process uncertainty
July 31 drops to 60%13%
US military strikes on Iran on July 8, 2026, escalated tensions and cast doubt on the continuation of the peace process, despite no official cancellation of the interim peace agreement. This event contributed to a further decline in market expectations for formal talks by July 31.
US launches multiple strikes on Iranian targets amid ongoing technical talks
July 31 plunges to 19%54%
The US conducted airstrikes on Iranian military targets during ongoing technical talks, escalating tensions and undermining trust in the peace process. This military escalation caused a sharp decline in market confidence for a next formal senior-level round by July 31 and August 31.
Next round of US-Iran technical negotiations expected to resume soon
Diplomatic sources indicated that the next round of US-Iran technical talks would likely occur in Islamabad or Switzerland in mid-July, focusing on nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and regional security, following a pause due to Iran's mourning period. This sustained market interest in a near-term diplomatic engagement.
Next round of US-Iran technical negotiations expected to resume soon, possibly in Islamabad
August 31 drops to 46%6%
Reports indicated that technical-level talks between the US and Iran were expected to resume soon, with Islamabad emerging as a preferred venue, but no official confirmation of a formal senior-level round was made, sustaining market uncertainty.
Iran's multiday funeral ceremonies delay US-Iran peace talks, Islamabad eyed as next venue
July 31 jumps to 69%6%
The funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delayed peace talks, with diplomatic sources indicating Islamabad, Pakistan, as the likely venue for the next round expected around July 11, raising market expectations for a mid-July meeting.
Pakistan's capital Islamabad emerges as likely venue for next US-Iran technical talks
July 31 surges to 63%31%
Reports indicated Islamabad as the preferred venue for the next round of technical negotiations, expected around July 11, raising market expectations for a near-term meeting and increasing confidence in talks continuing soon.
Islamabad emerges as likely venue for next US-Iran technical talks
On July 5, 2026, reports indicated Islamabad as the preferred location for the next round of US-Iran technical negotiations, expected around July 11, following delays due to funeral ceremonies. This raised some market optimism for talks but no formal senior-level round was confirmed.
Pakistan emerges as likely venue for next US-Iran talks, expected around July 11
July 31 jumps to 77%5%
Reports indicated Islamabad as the preferred location for the next round of US-Iran technical negotiations, expected around July 11, following delays due to Iran's Supreme Leader's funeral. This raised market expectations for a near-term meeting but lacked official confirmation, contributing to price fluctuations for July and August outcomes.
Next round of US-Iran peace talks likely to be held in Islamabad on July 11
July 17 surges to 36%16%
Reports indicated that the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks is expected to resume on July 11 in Islamabad, Pakistan, following the conclusion of Khamenei's funeral ceremonies. The talks will address nuclear issues, sanctions relief, and frozen assets, sustaining market optimism for a meeting by mid-July.
Iran’s ambassador to China vows to charge service fees for vessels transiting Strait of Hormuz
July 31 rises to 74%2%
Iran announced plans to impose service fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, despite US objections. Iran stated that friendly countries like China would receive special considerations. This issue remains a key sticking point in ongoing negotiations and affects the stability of the peace process.
Islamabad emerges as likely venue for next round of US-Iran technical talks
July 31 jumps to 72%9%
Reports indicated Islamabad as the preferred location for the next round of technical negotiations, expected around July 11, raising market expectations for near-term talks despite no official confirmation.
Next round of US-Iran talks likely to be held at Islamabad: report
Reports emerged that Islamabad is the leading candidate to host the next round of US-Iran technical negotiations, expected around July 11, following delays due to Iran's Supreme Leader's funeral. This raised market expectations for a near-term meeting but uncertainty remained as no official confirmation was made.
Iran begins multi-day funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, pausing peace talks
July 17 plunges to 0%47%
Iran commenced a six-day funeral for its late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9, leading to a pause in US-Iran peace talks as confirmed by mediators. This event caused market prices for talks by mid-July to plummet to near zero.
Iran announces it will charge fees for passage through Strait of Hormuz after talks
July 10 dips to 2%1%
On July 4, Iran declared it would definitely charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz after the current ceasefire period, with possible special treatment for friendly nations. This announcement raised concerns about future negotiations and contributed to market declines in the probability of talks by earlier July dates, reflecting uncertainty about the diplomatic process.
Iran announces funeral ceremonies for late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9
July 31 surges to 73%17%
Iran held multi-day funeral ceremonies for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which paused senior-level diplomatic talks. The funeral was a major state event attended by many international dignitaries, delaying the next formal round of US-Iran peace talks.
Iran begins nine-day funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
July 10 dips to 1%2%
Iran officially commenced a nine-day funeral period for Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9, with millions expected to attend. The funeral period caused a diplomatic pause, with mediators confirming that formal senior-level US-Iran peace talks would resume only after the ceremonies concluded, reinforcing market expectations for a post-July 9 meeting.
Iran denies plans for next round of US-Iran peace talks amid US delegation visit
July 31 plunges to 13%19%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson publicly stated there were no plans for a next round of negotiations despite the US sending a delegation to Pakistan, causing market prices for early July deadlines to fall sharply due to increased uncertainty.
Iran insists on control and fees for Strait of Hormuz despite Omani opposition
July 10 dips to 2%1%
Iran rejected Oman's proposal for voluntary maritime service fees and insisted on imposing mandatory tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a key sticking point in negotiations. This stance increased tensions and uncertainty about the peace process, affecting market confidence in earlier resolution dates.
US-Iran peace talks paused for funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader
July 3 drops to 0%5%
Denuclearization talks between the US and Iran were put on hold for a week as Iran prepared for the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expected to last from July 4 to July 9. This pause delayed any formal senior-level peace talks, contributing to the market's drop in probability for near-term outcomes.
U.S.-Iran peace talks paused for funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
July 10 dips to 1%2%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to pause denuclearization and peace talks during the funeral ceremonies for former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9. This pause delayed any potential new senior-level talks, leading to a sharp drop in market prices for talks by July 10 and July 17.
Iran denies plans for immediate next round of US-Iran peace talks amid US delegation visit
July 31 plunges to 32%47%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated there were no plans for the next round of negotiations despite the US sending a delegation to Pakistan, causing market prices for earlier July dates to decline sharply due to increased uncertainty.
Qatar announces next US-Iran meeting after funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader
Qatari Foreign Ministry stated that the next US-Iran meeting would be scheduled at the earliest possible time after the funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, planned from July 4 to July 9. This delay contributed to market skepticism about talks occurring by early July dates.
Doha indirect technical talks conclude with no breakthrough on lasting peace
July 31 dips to 66%2%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha ended without progress toward a lasting peace deal. The talks focused on previously resolved issues, and senior Iranian negotiators did not attend. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, contributing to market doubts about a formal senior-level round by July 31.
U.S. and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha
July 10 plunges to 1%44%
The Doha technical talks focused on implementing the June agreement with no progress toward a lasting peace, confirming that no new senior-level U.S.-Iran peace talks had occurred.
Doha technical talks end with no senior‑level agreement
Both sides announced that the Doha technical talks had concluded without any senior‑level agreement, reinforcing the market’s belief that no new senior round would start before the deadline, keeping the Yes probability at 0 %.
U.S. and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no progress toward lasting peace
July 31 drops to 60%11%
The indirect technical talks ended without signs of progress toward a lasting peace agreement or a new formal senior-level round. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after the funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, further delaying formal talks and contributing to market price declines.
President Trump says talks with Iran are “very good” after Doha session
Trump claimed the talks were “very good” despite the lack of a senior round, but no new meeting was announced. The market, already near 0 % Yes, stayed flat, confirming the market’s view that a senior round was not imminent.
Iranian embassy official in Pakistan says next round of US-Iran talks could take place this week or early next week
July 10 drops to 4%9%
An Iranian embassy official in Pakistan indicated that the next round of talks between the US and Iran could occur imminently, either this week or early next week, briefly boosting market optimism for a near-term meeting.
Doha technical talks conclude without senior-level agreement; next meeting delayed for funeral ceremonies
July 17 plunges to 10%37%
On July 2, 2026, mediators reported that the indirect technical talks in Doha concluded without progress toward a lasting peace or a new senior-level round. The next meeting was postponed due to funeral ceremonies for Iran's former Supreme Leader from July 4 to July 9, reducing expectations for a formal senior-level round before mid-July and causing further price declines for July 10 and July 17 outcomes.
US-Iran peace talks in Doha temporarily paused for Khamenei funeral
July 10 drops to 3%11%
Mediators reported that US-Iran peace talks were paused to observe the funeral ceremonies of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from July 4 to July 9. This pause lowered market expectations for a formal senior-level round before mid-July, causing prices for July 10 and July 17 outcomes to drop significantly.
Doha technical talks between U.S. and Iran conclude without senior-level agreement
July 17 drops to 7%11%
The round of indirect technical talks ended with no progress toward a lasting peace agreement or scheduling of a new senior-level round. The market further discounted the likelihood of a formal senior-level round before July 17 and July 31.
US-Iran peace talks temporarily paused for former Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral ceremonies
July 10 drops to 3%8%
On July 2, 2026, mediators reported that US-Iran peace talks in Doha were temporarily paused to observe the funeral ceremonies of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, scheduled from July 4 to July 9. This pause diminished expectations for a formal senior-level round before mid-July, reflected in further price declines for July 10 and July 17 outcomes.
US-Iran indirect technical talks conclude in Doha with no breakthrough and funeral delay announced
July 10 plunges to 6%18%
Indirect technical talks in Doha concluded without significant progress. Qatar announced that the next formal meeting would be delayed until after the funeral of Iran's former Supreme Leader, causing early market options to plunge.
Doha technical talks pause for Iran’s former Supreme Leader’s funeral, no senior talks scheduled
July 17 drops to 7%12%
On July 2, 2026, mediators announced a pause in US-Iran technical talks in Doha to observe funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader from July 4 to July 9. This pause further reduced market confidence in a next formal senior-level peace talks round by July 17, contributing to price declines.
US-Iran indirect technical talks in Doha conclude with no progress toward senior-level peace talks
July 17 drops to 19%12%
On July 2, 2026, Iran and the United States concluded a round of indirect technical talks in Doha without making headway toward a lasting peace agreement. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, reducing chances of a senior-level round before mid-July.
US-Iran indirect technical talks in Doha conclude without senior-level agreement
July 31 plunges to 63%21%
The round of indirect technical talks ended with no progress toward a lasting peace agreement or scheduling of a new senior-level round, reducing market confidence for a formal senior-level round before mid-July.
Qatar reports positive progress in US-Iran talks but no direct senior-level meetings
July 17 drops to 35%12%
On July 2, Qatar announced that US and Iranian negotiators met separately with mediators and agreed to continue discussions, describing progress as positive. However, no direct senior-level US-Iran meetings occurred, and Iran publicly denied formal talks were scheduled, maintaining market doubts about a formal senior-level round by early July dates.
Doha talks conclude with no breakthrough on lasting peace deal
August 31 dips to 49%1%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks in Doha ended without progress toward a lasting peace deal, focusing instead on implementing previously resolved issues. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, signaling a delay in senior-level talks and contributing to market declines.
Doha technical talks paused for funeral ceremonies of Iran's former Supreme Leader
July 17 drops to 13%5%
Mediators announced a pause in technical talks to observe funeral ceremonies from July 4 to July 9, further reducing market expectations for a formal senior-level peace talks round before mid-July, reflected in continued price declines.
U.S. and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no major breakthrough
The indirect technical talks in Doha ended without significant progress toward a lasting peace, focusing on previously resolved issues and postponing senior-level negotiations until after Iran's former Supreme Leader's funeral, maintaining market uncertainty.
Qatar reports positive progress in US-Iran talks, next round after Khamenei funeral
Qatar announced that separate meetings between US and Iranian negotiators made positive progress on issues related to the MoU, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions after the funeral ceremonies for Iran's former Supreme Leader. The talks focused on frozen assets release and a communication channel for ceasefire disputes, signaling cautious progress despite unresolved nuclear and sanctions issues.
US-Iran technical talks in Doha conclude with no breakthrough; next meeting after Iran's former leader's funeral
July 17 plunges to 32%15%
On July 2, indirect technical talks in Doha ended without significant progress toward a lasting peace. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after the funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, planned from July 4 to July 9, reducing chances of formal talks before mid-July.
Iran describes ongoing peace efforts as a 'turning point' amid deep differences
July 31 drops to 66%7%
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman acknowledged a critical phase in US-Iran negotiations with Pakistani and Qatari mediators involved, but ruled out key concessions and noted significant differences remain. This tempered market expectations for a near-term formal senior-level round, contributing to price declines for July 31 outcome.
Doha technical talks conclude with no breakthrough toward lasting peace deal
August 31 dips to 49%1%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha ended without progress toward a lasting peace deal. The talks focused on issues already resolved in the interim agreement, and senior Iranian negotiators did not attend, signaling limited advancement toward formal senior-level negotiations.
Doha technical talks conclude with no progress toward formal peace talks
July 31 dips to 67%1%
On July 2, 2026, the round of indirect technical talks in Doha ended without signs of progress toward a lasting peace or scheduling a new senior-level round. The talks focused on issues already resolved in the interim agreement, reinforcing market doubts about near-term formal negotiations and contributing to price declines.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no senior-level progress
On July 1-2, 2026, US and Iranian officials held indirect technical talks in Doha focusing on maritime traffic and frozen assets, with no sign of progress toward a formal senior-level peace deal. The next meeting was postponed until after Iran's Supreme Leader's funeral, reducing near-term optimism.
Doha technical talks conclude with no progress toward formal peace talks
July 17 drops to 32%10%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha concluded without any indication of progress toward formal senior-level peace talks. The discussions focused on issues already resolved in the interim agreement, reinforcing market skepticism about near-term formal talks and contributing to price declines.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no progress toward lasting peace
July 17 plunges to 1%46%
The indirect technical talks held in Doha ended without signs of substantive progress toward peace, and Iran indicated the next meeting would be delayed until after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, dampening market expectations for near-term formal talks.
Iran announces conclusion of technical talks in Doha, plans communication channel on MoU implementation
Iran announced the conclusion of its technical talks in Doha, reporting agreements on partial release of frozen assets and establishing a communication channel to oversee MoU implementation. The talks were paused ahead of Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral, delaying further senior-level negotiations and contributing to market uncertainty.
Iran issues fresh warning on Strait of Hormuz as US-Iran talks pause for Khamenei funeral
July 3 plunges to 0%61%
After two days of indirect talks in Doha, Iranian officials left to prepare for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Qatar mediators reported positive progress and said further discussions would be scheduled after the funeral, causing market uncertainty and price volatility for near-term outcomes.
Doha talks conclude with no progress toward formal senior-level peace talks
July 31 dips to 70%3%
On July 2, 2026, indirect technical talks in Doha concluded without signs of progress toward formal senior-level peace talks. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, delaying prospects for near-term formal talks and contributing to market declines.
Iran issues fresh warning on Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing Qatar talks
July 17 drops to 32%11%
On July 2, after two days of indirect talks in Doha, Iranian officials left as Tehran prepared for the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran issued a warning for vessels to follow Tehran-designated routes through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling ongoing tensions despite diplomatic progress. Qatar confirmed talks would continue after the funeral, indicating delays in formal negotiations.
Doha indirect technical talks conclude with no breakthrough; next meeting postponed
July 10 plunges to 4%33%
On July 2, indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha concluded without significant progress toward a lasting peace. Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after funeral ceremonies for Iran’s former supreme leader, delaying formal senior-level talks and causing market prices for earlier dates to drop further.
Iran and US conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough on peace
July 3 dips to 0%1%
On July 2, 2026, Iran and the US ended a round of indirect technical talks in Doha without making headway toward a lasting peace agreement. The talks focused on previously resolved issues from the interim agreement, and Iran’s top negotiators did not attend. Qatar announced the next meeting would be after the funeral of Iran’s former Supreme Leader, signaling a pause in formal diplomacy and reducing chances of a senior-level round by early July.
Indirect technical talks between U.S. and Iran conclude in Doha with no breakthrough
July 31 dips to 65%1%
On July 2, indirect technical talks between the U.S. and Iran concluded in Doha without significant progress toward a lasting peace deal. The talks focused on issues resolved in the interim agreement, and Qatar announced the next meeting would be scheduled after funeral processions for Iran’s former Supreme Leader, delaying the next formal round.
Qatar announces next round of US-Iran talks to occur after funeral of Iran’s late Supreme Leader
On July 2, 2026, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson stated that the next round of indirect talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators would be scheduled after the funeral procession of Iran’s former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, delaying expectations for a near-term senior-level round and contributing to market uncertainty.
Qatar states next US-Iran meeting to occur after Iran's former leader's funeral
July 10 dips to 2%4%
Qatar, a mediator, announced that the next meeting between US and Iran would take place only after funeral processions for Iran’s former supreme leader, delaying any formal senior-level talks and lowering market expectations for July 10 and 17 rounds.
Vice President Vance says U.S.-Iran talks 'going well' but still early
July 31 jumps to 78%7%
Vice President JD Vance publicly stated on July 1 that talks with Iran were progressing well, though it was still early in the process. This statement provided some optimism but did not confirm a new formal senior-level round, contributing to mixed market reactions and price volatility.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha, progress reported but no senior-level round
On July 1, US and Iranian officials held indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focusing on implementing the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President JD Vance described the talks as 'going well' but emphasized they were still early, maintaining some market optimism for later talks but no formal senior-level round was announced.
U.S. Vice President JD Vance calls ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement a historic moment
July 31 dips to 71%1%
JD Vance described the diplomatic efforts as potentially transformative, emphasizing that the direction of talks depends on Iran's response to U.S. leverage. Despite military tensions and Iran's rejection of direct talks in Doha, the U.S. remained committed to diplomacy, sustaining moderate market confidence for a July 31 resolution.
Vice President JD Vance says US-Iran talks in Doha are 'going well' but still early
August 31 drops to 48%14%
Vice President JD Vance described the ongoing indirect technical talks in Doha as progressing well but emphasized that it was still early in the process, maintaining some market optimism for later talks but no formal senior-level round was announced.
US Vice President Vance says US-Iran talks 'going well' despite Iranian denials
Vice President JD Vance stated that talks were progressing well, though Iranian officials publicly denied formal peace talks were ongoing, highlighting the distinction between technical and senior-level talks and contributing to market volatility.
US and Iran continue technical talks in Qatar amid mediation efforts
On July 1, US and Iranian officials engaged in technical talks mediated by Qatar, with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner meeting Qatari leaders. Vice President JD Vance described talks as "going well" but early, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic efforts without confirming a formal senior-level round. This maintained some market optimism but did not confirm a next formal round, impacting July 31 outcome prices.
US and Iranian officials hold indirect talks in Doha mediated by Qatar
July 31 drops to 54%12%
US and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect talks in Doha with Qatari mediators, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts despite no formal senior-level round.
Vice President JD Vance says US-Iran talks 'going well' but still early
JD Vance stated that talks between the US and Iran were progressing well but remained in early stages. Qatari mediators held separate talks with both delegations and planned next meetings after Iran's former supreme leader's funeral, maintaining some market optimism.
U.S. and Iran hold technical talks in Doha amid peace deal efforts
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
The U.S. and Iran held technical talks in Doha on July 1, 2026, focusing on implementing the peace deal and securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials denied formal peace talks were ongoing, causing market skepticism about a formal senior-level round by July 31.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 3 plunges to 0%61%
On July 1, 2026, the United States and Iran engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha, facilitated by Qatari and Pakistani mediators. These talks focused on implementing the prior agreement but were not formal senior-level peace talks, causing market prices for earlier July rounds to drop significantly while the July 31 option remained more supported.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha with no senior‑level agreement
July 3 dips to 0%1%
Both sides held indirect, lower‑level technical talks in Doha but made no progress toward a senior‑level round. The market reacted sharply, driving the Yes probability to almost zero by July 3.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha, progress reported but no formal senior-level round
July 3 plunges to 1%44%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian delegations engaged in technical talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Doha, building on the June 22 Switzerland meeting. While progress was acknowledged by US Vice President JD Vance and others, these talks were technical and not formally recognized as a senior-level peace talks round, causing market prices for July 3 and July 10 outcomes to plummet.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha focusing on Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire
August 15 dips to 39%1%
On July 1, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks mediated by Qatar and Pakistan in Doha, focusing on implementing the prior agreement, including shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions relief. These talks did not involve senior-level representatives, leading to diminished market expectations for a near-term formal peace talks round.
US and Iran agree to continue discussions after indirect talks in Doha
July 31 surges to 74%20%
Following separate meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, US and Iranian negotiators agreed to continue discussions, with the next meeting to be scheduled after the funeral of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This maintained market expectations for a formal round after the mourning period.
US and Iran hold separate indirect technical talks in Qatar, agree to continue discussions
July 31 jumps to 75%6%
US and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha, making positive progress on issues related to the MoU, including frozen assets and ceasefire implementation, but no direct senior-level talks occurred. This maintained some market confidence for the July 31 outcome while earlier dates lost support.
U.S. and Iranian negotiators hold indirect talks in Doha with mediators
July 17 dips to 43%4%
On July 1, U.S. and Iranian negotiators met separately with Qatari and Pakistani mediators in Doha, reporting "positive progress" and agreeing to continue discussions. These indirect technical talks, while not formal senior-level rounds, maintained diplomatic momentum but did not confirm a next formal round, contributing to market uncertainty.
U.S. and Iranian officials hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 31 drops to 74%10%
On July 1, U.S. and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect, lower-level technical talks in Doha through Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focusing on implementing the June memorandum of understanding. Despite progress, no direct senior-level meetings occurred, and both sides publicly denied ongoing peace talks, contributing to market uncertainty about the timing of the next formal round.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 10 plunges to 0%45%
On July 1, 2026, U.S. and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect, technical talks in Doha, building on the June 22 Switzerland meeting. These talks focused on implementing the prior agreement but were not formal senior-level peace talks, causing market prices for July 10 and July 17 outcomes to drop sharply.
US and Iranian delegations hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 17 plunges to 31%16%
On July 1, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha, focusing on implementing the prior agreement but not constituting a formal senior-level peace talks round. This caused market prices for earlier July rounds to drop significantly.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough
July 17 plunges to 19%16%
On July 1, 2026, the US and Iran ended a round of indirect technical talks in Doha without signs of progress toward a lasting peace deal, with Qatar indicating the next meeting would be delayed until after Iran's former supreme leader's funeral. This lack of advancement reduced market confidence in imminent formal senior-level talks by July 17.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 17 plunges to 18%29%
Technical talks focused on implementing the prior agreement were held in Doha but did not involve senior-level representatives or formal peace negotiations, leading to a sharp decline in market prices for the July 17 outcome due to diminished expectations of a near-term senior-level round.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha, progress reported by President Trump
Technical talks in Doha aimed at securing peace and restarting shipping were held, with President Trump stating progress was made, but these were not senior-level talks, limiting market impact on formal round expectations.
US and Iran conclude indirect technical talks in Doha with no breakthrough
July 31 drops to 62%11%
On July 1, 2026, the US and Iran ended a round of indirect technical talks in Doha focused on issues like the Strait of Hormuz but showed no progress toward a lasting peace deal. This reinforced market skepticism about imminent senior-level talks, contributing to price declines for the July 31 and July 17 outcomes.
U.S. and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha focusing on Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire
August 31 dips to 48%3%
Following the high-level talks, the U.S. and Iran engaged in indirect technical discussions mediated by Qatar and Pakistan to implement the ceasefire and address shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining some market optimism for later talks but not qualifying as a formal senior-level round.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha amid ongoing mediation
July 17 drops to 42%5%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, focusing on implementing the interim peace agreement. These talks were not formal senior-level negotiations but technical discussions, which did not qualify as a new round of peace talks, leading to a decline in market prices for near-term outcomes.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 10 plunges to 1%44%
US and Iranian delegations engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha focusing on implementing the prior agreement but without formal senior-level negotiations. This caused market prices for July 10 and July 17 outcomes to drop sharply, reflecting reduced expectations for a formal senior-level round by those dates.
US and Iran hold indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
July 31 plunges to 45%43%
US and Iranian officials engaged in indirect technical talks in Doha focusing on implementing the interim peace agreement, but no formal senior-level round occurred, causing market declines for early July outcomes.
President Trump says US-Iran talks 'going well' after meetings in Doha
July 31 rises to 48%3%
President Trump stated progress was made in indirect talks with Iran in Qatar, supporting ongoing diplomatic engagement but not indicating a formal senior-level round, contributing to mixed market reactions.
US and Iranian officials hold technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
August 31 drops to 50%12%
On July 1, US and Iranian delegations engaged in technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, building on prior negotiations. Vice President JD Vance described talks as "going well," but these were not senior-level peace talks, leading to moderate market optimism for talks by August 31 but not July 31.
Vice President Vance says US-Iran talks 'going well' despite challenges
August 31 rises to 50%1%
JD Vance expressed optimism about ongoing talks in Doha, describing them as 'going well' though still early, reinforcing market expectations for continued diplomatic engagement despite military tensions and technical nature of discussions.
US and Iran resume technical talks in Doha amid ongoing mediation
July 31 dips to 61%1%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian officials engaged in technical talks in Doha with Qatari and Pakistani mediators. These talks were not formal senior-level rounds but aimed at implementing the previous agreement, contributing to market uncertainty and a decline in the probability of formal talks by July 31.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan
August 31 drops to 73%11%
On July 1, 2026, US and Iranian delegations engaged in technical talks in Doha through mediators, building on the June Switzerland meeting. The talks were described as "going well" but still early, with next meetings planned after Iran's former supreme leader's funeral. This maintained some market optimism for future talks but did not qualify as a formal senior-level round.
US envoy Witkoff en route to Doha ahead of scheduled peace talks with Iran
Reports confirmed that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was traveling to Doha for the scheduled peace talks with Iran on June 30, reinforcing the likelihood of the next formal senior-level meeting occurring on time. This news supported market prices for the July 3 outcome.
Iran denies formal US talks scheduled, insists on conditions before resuming negotiations
July 3 dips to 14%3%
On June 30, Iran publicly stated that no negotiation meetings with the US were scheduled at any level in the coming days and that it would not resume talks until conditions in the memorandum of understanding were met. This stance dampened market expectations for imminent senior-level talks, causing further price declines for near-term outcomes.
President Trump announces US-Iran talks scheduled in Doha on June 30
President Trump publicly stated that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha on June 30 under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, boosting market confidence for a July 31 meeting. However, Iranian officials denied any scheduled talks, causing market volatility.
Iran denies scheduled talks with U.S. after Trump's Doha claim, causing market drop
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
Following Trump's announcement, Iranian officials publicly denied any scheduled talks with the U.S., creating contradictory messages that caused the market to sharply drop in confidence for the July 31 outcome.
U.S. and Iran prepare for indirect technical talks in Doha amid conflicting messages
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
On June 30, 2026, U.S. and Iranian officials were expected to hold indirect technical talks in Qatar mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, focusing on implementing the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian officials publicly denied any scheduled talks, causing market volatility and uncertainty about the timing of the next formal senior-level round.
U.S. envoys meet Qatari prime minister in Doha; technical talks to follow
July 31 plunges to 45%21%
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Qatari officials in Doha; both sides said they would hold separate technical talks later that week. The news reinforced the view that a senior‑level round was unlikely, pulling the Yes probability down to the mid‑30 % range.
U.S. and Iranian delegations hold separate technical talks with mediators in Qatar
July 31 plunges to 72%16%
U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met with Qatari officials while Iranian experts also arrived in Doha for technical discussions. However, Iran's foreign ministry spokesman stated no direct talks with the U.S. delegation were planned, maintaining conditions related to Israel's military actions in Lebanon.
US envoy Witkoff and Kushner meet mediators in Doha; no high-level talks with Iran scheduled
July 17 jumps to 53%6%
US envoys met with mediators in Doha to discuss the Iran deal, but Qatar's Foreign Ministry stated no high-level talks with Iranian officials were planned, reflecting ongoing delays and uncertainty about formal senior-level negotiations, which influenced market prices downward for earlier dates.
US and Iran hold technical talks in Doha amid ongoing peace efforts
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
Technical-level talks took place in Doha focusing on implementation issues such as the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire enforcement, but these were not formal senior-level peace talks, causing market uncertainty.
Iran denies any scheduled talks with U.S. after Trump’s Doha claim
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
Trump reiterated the Doha meeting claim, while Iranian officials publicly denied any scheduled talks. The contradictory messages caused the market to swing sharply, dropping the Yes probability from 88 % to 63 % on the same day.
Trump announces Iran agreed to hold talks in Doha despite recent Gulf attacks
July 10 drops to 37%8%
On June 29, President Trump claimed that Iran had agreed to hold talks in Doha, Qatar, following recent military clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement raised market optimism for upcoming talks, although Iran denied that final agreement negotiations had begun. The announcement influenced market prices, especially for the July 10 and July 17 outcomes, which saw volatility.
Iran rejects reports of scheduled technical talks with US in Doha
July 10 drops to 13%10%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi denied that technical talks with the US were scheduled in Doha, creating uncertainty about the progress of negotiations and contributing to a decline in market prices for earlier resolution dates.
US and Iran to hold indirect technical talks in Doha amid tensions
July 31 jumps to 74%8%
US and Iranian officials held indirect technical talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, focusing on implementing the memorandum of understanding, including frozen assets and Strait of Hormuz issues. Despite ongoing military tensions, these talks signaled continued diplomatic engagement.
President Trump announces US-Iran talks to be held in Doha on June 30
July 31 jumps to 88%10%
President Trump publicly announced that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha on June 30, signaling a potential continuation of formal talks and boosting market confidence. However, Iranian officials denied any scheduled talks, creating uncertainty.
US and Iran agree to ceasefire and plan Doha talks on Strait of Hormuz
July 31 drops to 66%6%
US and Iran agreed in principle to a ceasefire and scheduled talks in Doha, boosting market confidence in continued diplomatic engagement.
U.S. announces planned talks with Iran in Doha despite Iranian denial
July 31 surges to 88%56%
President Trump announced a planned meeting with Iranian negotiators in Doha on June 30, causing a surge in market confidence for the July 31 outcome, but Iranian officials denied any scheduled talks, leading to market volatility and a sharp drop in confidence.
President Trump announces U.S.-Iran talks to resume in Doha despite recent Gulf attacks
July 31 surges to 88%27%
President Trump stated that Iran requested a meeting in Doha, Qatar, scheduled for June 30, signaling intent to continue diplomatic engagement despite recent military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This announcement temporarily increased optimism for talks by July 31, though Iran denied formal negotiations were scheduled.
Trump announces US-Iran talks to resume Tuesday in Doha despite conflicting Iranian statements
July 10 drops to 38%7%
President Trump announced that US and Iranian officials would meet in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday, despite Iran denying that formal negotiations had been scheduled. This conflicting messaging created uncertainty in the market about the timing and formality of the next round of talks.
US Secretary of State Rubio indicates new round of US-Iran talks expected in Switzerland
July 31 surges to 88%26%
Rubio announced a new round of negotiations expected around June 29-30 in Switzerland, boosting market confidence for a near-term senior-level round.
US announces next round of US-Iran talks in Doha despite Iranian denial
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
President Trump announced that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha on June 30, 2026, causing a surge in market confidence. However, Iranian officials denied any scheduled talks, leading to market volatility and a drop in confidence.
U.S., Iran agree to ceasefire and plan talks in Doha on Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt strikes and planned talks in Qatar to resolve disputes over the Strait of Hormuz, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but not a formal senior-level peace talks round. This caused some market uncertainty and price fluctuations for the July 31 outcome.
US prepares new round of peace talks in Qatar, Iran says it won’t go
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
President Trump announced another round of diplomatic talks in Doha, Qatar, but Iranian officials publicly denied plans to attend, creating uncertainty and dampening market confidence for near-term formal senior-level talks.
Trump announces US-Iran talks to resume Tuesday in Doha amid conflicting Iranian statements
July 31 surges to 88%15%
President Trump announced that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha on June 30, 2026, for talks under the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, despite Iranian officials denying any scheduled talks. This announcement caused a surge in market confidence for the July 31 outcome, peaking at 88%.
President Trump announces next U.S.-Iran peace talks to be held in Doha, Qatar on June 30
July 3 surges to 35%24%
Despite recent regional attacks, President Trump confirmed on social media that Iran requested a meeting, scheduled for June 30 in Doha, Qatar, with mediation by Qatar and Pakistan. This announcement caused a notable increase in market prices for the July 3 outcome, reflecting heightened confidence in the next formal round of talks.
Iran denies any scheduled US-Iran peace talks despite US announcement
July 31 plunges to 63%25%
Following President Trump's announcement, Iranian officials publicly denied that any formal peace talks were scheduled, causing market confidence to drop sharply due to conflicting messages.
Trump announces US-Iran talks to resume in Doha after weekend clashes
July 3 plunges to 16%29%
Despite recent military clashes threatening the ceasefire, US President Trump announced that US and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha, Qatar, to continue talks. Iran denied direct talks but agreed to send a technical delegation, signaling cautious diplomatic progress.
President Trump announces U.S.-Iran talks to resume in Qatar despite recent Gulf attacks
July 3 plunges to 16%29%
President Trump announced that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would meet in Doha, Qatar, on June 30 or July 1, despite recent hostilities. Iran denied formal talks but agreed to technical discussions. This announcement caused some market volatility but skepticism about a formal senior-level meeting by early July dates increased, reflected in price declines.
US President Trump announces US-Iran meeting in Doha amid Iranian denial
July 3 plunges to 16%29%
On June 29, President Trump announced a US-Iran meeting scheduled for the next day in Doha, claiming Iran requested it. Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with the US, creating uncertainty about the timing and nature of the next formal talks. This conflicting information contributed to a decline in market confidence for the earliest July 3 outcome.
U.S. and Iran agree to halt strikes and plan talks in Qatar to resolve Strait of Hormuz dispute
July 31 dips to 77%2%
The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other and planned to hold talks in Qatar to address disputes over the Strait of Hormuz. This agreement indicated ongoing diplomatic engagement but did not constitute a formal senior-level peace talks round, causing some market uncertainty and price fluctuations for the July 31 and July 17 outcomes.
Next round of US-Iran talks scheduled in Switzerland
July 31 drops to 65%6%
Following the initial talks, sources reported that the next round of US-Iran negotiations would be held in Switzerland on June 28 and 29, continuing efforts to implement the memorandum of understanding and address unresolved issues.
Iran denies ongoing peace talks with US despite technical discussions
July 10 drops to 14%9%
Iran publicly denied that formal peace talks were ongoing, calling US statements deceitful, while US officials acknowledged only technical talks. This discrepancy reduced market confidence in a formal senior-level round by July 10 or 17.
US strikes Iran after attack on cargo ship in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 dips to 71%2%
The US conducted military strikes on Iranian targets following an attack on a commercial ship in the Strait of Hormuz, testing the fragile ceasefire and raising concerns about the stability of the peace process. This event caused market uncertainty about the timing of the next formal talks.
Iran denies plans for immediate next round of US-Iran peace talks amid US delegation visit
July 3 drops to 32%13%
Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson stated there were no plans for the next round of negotiations despite the US sending a delegation to Pakistan. This skepticism introduced uncertainty, causing a decline in market prices for earlier July dates like July 3 and July 10.
Reports indicate no firm date set yet for next round of US-Iran talks, possible weekend window
July 3 plunges to 13%32%
Sources reported that while the US and Iran could return to Islamabad for another round of talks as early as the weekend, no firm date had been set, causing uncertainty and price volatility in the market for earlier dates.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister warns Strait of Hormuz safe passage cannot be guaranteed
July 31 jumps to 77%7%
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements, raising regional tensions and complicating the peace process.
US Secretary of State Rubio demands Iran's proxy support be addressed in memorandum talks
July 17 rises to 49%2%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that Iran's support for regional proxies must be tackled in the ongoing memorandum talks, adding diplomatic friction to the timeline of the next formal round.
U.S. and Iran to resume technical talks in Switzerland amid conflicting statements
Following the high-level talks, technical-level negotiations were scheduled to resume in Switzerland focusing on Iran's nuclear program and sanctions removal. The continuation of technical talks, rather than formal senior-level meetings, tempered market expectations for a near-term formal round.
US and Iran agree to halt attacks and renew talks amid Gulf tensions
July 31 rises to 69%1%
Following a series of strikes and counterstrikes in the Gulf, Iran and the US agreed to halt hostilities and renew talks concerning the Strait of Hormuz dispute. This development suggested a fragile but ongoing diplomatic process, positively impacting market expectations for future negotiations.
Pakistan expresses hope to host next round of US-Iran peace talks soon
July 17 surges to 63%16%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly stated hopes to host the next round of US-Iran talks very soon, signaling active regional diplomatic engagement and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting, particularly affecting July 17 pricing.
Pakistan hopes to host next round of US-Iran peace talks very soon, PM says
July 31 drops to 72%7%
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif expressed hope that the next round of US-Iran talks would be held very soon in Islamabad, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and raising market expectations for a near-term meeting.
US and Iran to resume technical talks in Switzerland end of June
August 31 dips to 47%3%
Following the high-level talks, US and Iran planned to continue technical-level negotiations focusing on nuclear program and sanctions removal, but these technical talks did not qualify as formal senior-level rounds, tempering market expectations for immediate peace talks.
Iranian President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Pakistani officials mediating the peace talks, signaling continued diplomatic engagement following the June 22 Switzerland talks. This visit underscored Pakistan's central role as mediator and supported market optimism for upcoming talks by July 31.
Iran's Supreme Leader authorizes Iranian delegation to participate in next US-Iran peace talks
July 17 surges to 65%18%
Reports emerged that Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei gave permission for the Iranian negotiating team to join another round of peace talks with the US, signaling a potential breakthrough despite earlier Iranian denials. This raised market optimism for talks by July 17.
U.S. waives sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days following peace talks
The U.S. announced a 60-day waiver on sanctions for Iranian oil as part of the ongoing peace negotiations, signaling goodwill and commitment to the process. President Trump emphasized willingness to act if Iran does not comply, reinforcing market expectations for continued talks.
Iranian President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan amid ongoing US-Iran negotiations
July 17 surges to 65%18%
Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian met with Pakistani officials mediating the peace talks, signaling continued diplomatic engagement following the June 22 Switzerland talks. This visit underscored Pakistan's central role as mediator and the ongoing efforts to finalize a peace deal, supporting market optimism for upcoming talks.
Dispute arises over nuclear inspections during US-Iran talks in Switzerland
July 31 drops to 73%11%
The US and Iran publicly disagreed on whether Tehran had agreed to allow UN nuclear inspectors to visit bombed Iranian sites, reflecting ongoing complexities in the negotiations. This dispute introduced uncertainty but did not halt the diplomatic process, influencing market perceptions of the talks' progress.
US Secretary of State Rubio emphasizes no tolls on Strait of Hormuz in talks with Iran
July 31 dips to 71%2%
Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that no country is allowed to charge fees on the international waterway of the Strait of Hormuz, a key point in US-Iran negotiations. This firm stance highlighted ongoing disagreements on maritime issues, affecting market confidence in the timing of next talks.
Dispute arises over Iran's agreement to nuclear inspections during ongoing talks
July 31 plunges to 5%82%
Conflicting statements from the US and Iran about Iran's agreement to allow UN nuclear inspectors to visit bombed sites created uncertainty and dampened market confidence for a deal by July 31, contributing to price declines.
President Trump says U.S.‑Iran talks will resume Tuesday in Qatar
July 31 surges to 88%22%
President Trump posted on social media that a meeting with Iran would take place on Tuesday in Doha. The claim created a sudden surge in market confidence, raising the Yes probability to a peak of 88 % on June 29.
U.S. Treasury waives sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days
July 31 jumps to 73%7%
The Treasury announced a 60‑day waiver on sanctions against Iranian oil. The move was interpreted as a sign that the parties were moving toward a senior‑level follow‑up, briefly lifting market confidence and nudging the Yes probability upward.
Iran’s President Pezeshkian visits Pakistan after US-Iran talks
July 17 plunges to 28%19%
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian made a state visit to Pakistan, a key mediator in the peace process, shortly after the Switzerland talks. This visit signaled ongoing diplomatic engagement but also highlighted the complexity and factional challenges ahead, contributing to market uncertainty and price declines for earlier July dates.
US and Iran conclude first round of diplomatic talks in Switzerland with progress reported
July 31 dips to 82%2%
The first round of US-Iran diplomatic talks ended on June 22 in Switzerland with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal, setting expectations for follow-on technical talks but not a formal senior-level round, influencing initial market optimism.
US Treasury issues 60-day waiver on sanctions for Iranian oil exports
July 31 dips to 70%4%
Following the MoU, the US Treasury issued General License X authorizing Iranian oil exports and related transactions for 60 days, signaling initial sanctions relief and economic incentives for Iran. This action supported the peace process and influenced market optimism for the July 31 outcome.
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