Jordan Bardella, the incumbent president of France’s Rassemblement National since his 2022 election by party members, holds a commanding 95% implied probability in the market for the next leadership vote at the party congress scheduled for October 2026 in Orléans. His position stems from successful party modernization, expanded youth outreach, and repeated electoral gains that have consolidated internal support. Marine Le Pen and other figures such as Louis Aliot remain low-probability alternatives, reflecting their focus on the 2027 presidential contest and limited appetite for a party-leadership challenge. Potential shifts could arise from major policy rifts within the RN, disappointing results in interim elections, or unexpected legal or health developments affecting Bardella, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.