Jack Lowden leads the market at 37.6% implied probability following high-profile comments from his *Slow Horses* co-star Gary Oldman in September, who stated a choice had been made internally and crossed his fingers for the Scottish actor. This built on earlier buzz from podcaster Richard Osman and aligned with reports of a narrowed shortlist including Callum Turner and Jack Barton. Turner sits at 14% after long holding frontrunner status, backed by endorsements like George Clooney’s, while “No Bond chosen” at 27.1% captures ongoing uncertainty ahead of an expected end-of-2026 announcement from Amazon MGM Studios and director Denis Villeneuve. Recent skepticism from author Charlie Higson and Lowden’s own camp has introduced volatility without shifting the core narrative.