The protracted status of Benjamin Netanyahu’s three corruption cases, with the trial still in the defense witness phase after his June 2026 testimony concluded, underpins the 70% implied probability against conviction. Judges have twice signaled evidentiary weaknesses in the Case 4000 bribery allegation and urged prosecutors to drop it while retaining fraud and breach-of-trust counts, though no withdrawal has occurred. Hearings accelerated to five days weekly in October 2026 ahead of the presiding judge’s 2028 retirement, yet closing arguments and a verdict remain years distant amid Netanyahu’s active premiership and October 27 elections. These factors, combined with possible plea discussions or political developments, sustain trader expectations of no conviction by typical resolution horizons.