The September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election delivered a decisive result for the CDU, which received 4.9 percent of the vote and fell short of the five-percent threshold required for parliamentary entry—the first such failure by the party in any German state election. Consistent preliminary tallies and official counts from the Landeswahlleitung confirmed this outcome amid strong showings by the AfD at 38.2 percent and the SPD at 35.5 percent, with late-campaign polling averages already placing the CDU near or below the hurdle. Trader consensus at 99.8 percent for under reflects the completed vote count and minimal remaining uncertainty around final certification. Residual scenarios that could theoretically alter resolution include an extraordinarily narrow recount margin or procedural challenge, though both appear improbable given the reported gap of roughly 1,100 votes.