Nicolás Maduro remains in US federal custody in Brooklyn following his January 2026 capture during a US military operation in Venezuela, where he and his wife face narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons charges in Manhattan federal court. A June 2027 trial date has been set, with defense motions challenging jurisdiction and head-of-state immunity scheduled for oral argument in November 2026; prosecutors recently filed arguments rejecting any immunity claim. These unresolved pretrial issues, combined with the extended timeline before any verdict, underpin trader consensus favoring no additional prison time as the most probable outcome. Longer sentence ranges reflect the severity of the allegations if conviction occurs, though conviction itself remains uncertain amid ongoing legal disputes and potential diplomatic or procedural developments.