Moonshot AI maintains a brisk release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—on July 16, 2026, followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. As of early September 2026, Kimi K4 remains in development with no official announcement, model card, or confirmed timeline. Reporting indicates Moonshot is actively securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, reflecting competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6. Traders should watch for leaks on training progress, compute allocations, or executive statements at upcoming developer events, as historical patterns show Moonshot can accelerate once hardware is secured but timelines often slip amid export controls and scaling demands.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$17,450 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टू, 2026
31 अक्टूबर, 2026
3%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
14%
$17,450 वॉल्यूम
31 अक्टूबर, 2026
$9,484 वॉल्यूम
3%
31 दिसंबर, 2026
$7,966 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI maintains a brisk release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—on July 16, 2026, followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. As of early September 2026, Kimi K4 remains in development with no official announcement, model card, or confirmed timeline. Reporting indicates Moonshot is actively securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, reflecting competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6. Traders should watch for leaks on training progress, compute allocations, or executive statements at upcoming developer events, as historical patterns show Moonshot can accelerate once hardware is secured but timelines often slip amid export controls and scaling demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$17,450समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI maintains a brisk release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—on July 16, 2026, followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. As of early September 2026, Kimi K4 remains in development with no official announcement, model card, or confirmed timeline. Reporting indicates Moonshot is actively securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, reflecting competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6. Traders should watch for leaks on training progress, compute allocations, or executive statements at upcoming developer events, as historical patterns show Moonshot can accelerate once hardware is secured but timelines often slip amid export controls and scaling demands.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$17,450समाप्ति तिथि
1 जन, 2027बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI maintains a brisk release cadence for its Kimi series, shipping Kimi K3—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE model with 1M-token context and native vision—on July 16, 2026, followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. As of early September 2026, Kimi K4 remains in development with no official announcement, model card, or confirmed timeline. Reporting indicates Moonshot is actively securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, reflecting competitive pressure from U.S. frontier models like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6. Traders should watch for leaks on training progress, compute allocations, or executive statements at upcoming developer events, as historical patterns show Moonshot can accelerate once hardware is secured but timelines often slip amid export controls and scaling demands.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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